# Chapter Crib Sheet --- Summary of Facts

{\normalsize We may use slightly different sources and numbers in this crib sheet than those we have used in the book.  The numbers are reasonably consistent, yet convey typical estimation differences that show up when different sources or years are used.



  Unless otherwise noted, the principal data source is \eiaieo.



  Please bring any errors to our attention asap.



    {6}{[Fig X: Population (in billion)](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL) }



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   First-Year Natural Atmospheric CO2\ Removal: $ ~ $20 GtCO2.\\{\smaller (Total removal: 100s-1000s of years.)}


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   Extra Human-Caused Atmospheric:\\ +18 GtCO2/year $ ~ $ +2.5 ppm/year. ([Relating Emissions in GtCO2 to PPM](https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45) .)


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   Long-Run: 2$ x $CO2 (ppm) $\Rightarrow$ +1.0\dC.  Includes water vapor.


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  {\smaller Data Basis: mostly [IPCC 2021 6th Report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf)  for RCP 4.5 and 7.0.  RCP 6.0 is now interpolated.  Sometimes IPCC 5th.}


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   Terrestrial effects are difficult to assess: hotter but wetter.  Uneven.


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   Many problems: judging harm, inefficient administration, corrupt administration, differential harm, escape.



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   COP are not about eliminating global warming but about reducing it by ``10--20%.''


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   Reduction of global warming by 2050 by 5% (from about 1.7\dC\ to about 1.6\dC).


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   Reduction of global warming by 2100 by 20% (from about 3\dC\ to about 2.6\dC).


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   About size of US Public School education spending.


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   $50 SCC is reducible through (a) smart ramping up of CO2 tax; (b) smart delay (better tech).


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   Problem is understanding choices by decision-makers.


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   World outcome is *not* the engineered solution to a world problem.


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   OECD countries are no longer big enough to solve the problem.


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   \SX.X: A global (SCC) carbon tax is impossible without a global government.


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   \SX.X: Treaties not in self-interest.  Excludability and free-riding incentives. No similar treaty ever effective.


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   \SX: Carbon footprints have been known for decades.



    (Carbon-shaming or setting an example?)  What will change?


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   What will change? Need to convince 8--11 billion people, not just 25% of the (more climate-conscious) population in the 25% that the OECD represents.


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   \SX.X: Locally justifiable fossil-fuel taxes (PM Health costs:\\ $10/tCO2 to $100/tCO2).


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   \SX.X: Reforestation with lumber harvesting.


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   Achilles Heel: High mining and transport costs;


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   \SX.X: \textbf{Hydrogen}: similar to NatGas, but likely far too expensive for many decades.


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    $\bullet$ Almost perfectly in/out-efficient;



    $\bullet$ Tiny capacity on grid ($ ~ $ 10 min total);


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   Most clean-tech in lab will fail (true), but there are dozens of exciting techs in lab.


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   All numbers are immensely large --- think 1/10 of all agriculture.


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   Space and materials needed for clean tech, but plenty are available *long-run*.


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   Clean-tech enjoys some subsidies, though small compared to fossil fuels.


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   High-quality energy.  Jack of all trades.  High conversion efficiency to kinetic energy.


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   Typical daily electricity demand pattern today: Low at noon; Peaks at 7am and 8pm.


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   Typical clean-energy supply: High at noon, low at 7am and 8pm.



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   [About $2 million per GW per mile](https://iea-etsap.org/E-TechDS/PDF/E12_el-t&d_KV_Apr2014_GSOK.pdf) .


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   Cheap now only because generation is near use.  Will become more expensive as generation has to be farther away.


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   \SX.X:  Removal cost is one upper ceiling to the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide.


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   \SX.X: Reforestation with lumber harvesting is cheapest method, perhaps as low as $10/tCO2 for first marginal GtCO2 (that world is not taking).


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   Industrial CO2 removal projects seem hopelessly expensive for decades to come.  Economics work only to arbitrage government subsidies.


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   \SX.X:  Solar radiation management is worth investigating, but not (yet) deploying.  Danger of unintended consequences.


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