Etiquette

• Do not leave your computer or notebook open when we have speakers.

• Please pay attention, and ask good questions.

READ

• You must read the book for the final and information.

More Energy and Power

• Book contains explanations about Watts and Watt-hours, power and energy.

• We need to wrangle about 150 PWh of energy within one generation.

Situation Today

Green Hydrogen

• Hopeless, because it is too expensive.

  • Green = 10x NatGas cost today; maybe 2x in 40 years?

• Unknown Use Cases. Given whatever E cost:

  • Think batteries for overnight storage (whatever price of E)
  • Think E → salt → heat , instead of E → hydrogen → heat

• Long-Distance Transport

  • Maybe…if competitive

Nuclear Power

• Painful regulation.
  • Some regulation is absolutely needed,
  • though much NRC regulations has remained just stupid.
  • (Even dumber in Germany now.)
• Did NRC regulation kill nuclear power?
  • probably not
  • same problem have appeared in every country
  • → not just NRC

• Hopeless, because today’s reactors are economically uncompetitive against NatGas and clean energy.

  • Future (small?) reactors could become competitive…maybe

  • Humanity could sure use more energy solutions.

  • Fusion plants are economically no different.

  • If someone solves the clean-energy storage problem, nuclear plants could be obsolete before they even open.

• Many other problems, too, but probably solvable

  • Absolutely dead-serious and need consideration, though.

Batteries

• Not good enough for energy density and for cost today for complete takeover.
  • grid means some places need just 4h; Li already great!
  • not cost-effective for 12 hours (NatGas).
• Improving every year. They will be good enough.
  • → optimal choice: go slow!

Lithium Chemistries

• Modest toxicity, clean mining, water reactive.

• Anode and cathode make huge difference

  • dendrites (tendrils); capacity.
  • component costs

• Batteries are getting much better every year, soon 3,000 cycles; could perhaps become 100,000 cycles!

• Plenty of lithium (e.g., Salton Sea)

• price: $1,200/KWh in 2010; $150/KWh in 2020! $75/KWh in 2035?

Other Chemistries

• Many different possible chemistries

  • Watch out for flow batteries, etc.

• Solve the storage cost problem and fossil fuels are done.

  • Clean energy generation is already much cheaper.

Clean Energy (=Usually Electricity)

• Lots of FUD, often surreptitious.

• Recycling of turbines is not a problem.

• Large area needed is not a problem.

  • size of Massachusetts?

  • compare to agriculture (and not competing!)

  • should be placed close to use and grid

• Huge energy transition takes lots of time.

• Optimal deployment is slow while costs are coming down.

• There will be many short-term delays and hickups

Dispatchable (Storage)

• All heat plants that don’t operate 24/7 are very cost inefficient.

• Even otherwise cheap NatGas plants.

Grid/Allocation problems

• Tremendous

  • Time and Location matters

  • uncertainty (supply and demand);

  • short-term (which plants to switch on);

  • long-term (which plants to build where);

  • how to move E around (transmission).

• Balancing Act: Markets and Regulation

  • historically encumbered in the USA

World

• Even more heterogeneous than USA.

It is not enough to decarbonize US! In fact, it’s almost useless.

USA

Power/Energy Mix Comparison

Utility-Scale High Fixed Costs

• Almost all cases: First-order is fixed cost

  • built or not built

  • 30-year replacement or new needs

• Rest (variable cost) is often much lower.

• Amazingly, solar PV fixed cost is now getting so cheap that NatGas plants are installing it to save on NatGas!

New Plants: USA / OECD / China+India+

• Within the OECD:

  • For many years now, really only new Wind and Solar plants have made sense;

  • will probably continue; explain below why.

• Beyond the OECD:

  • Lots of Coal.

  • usually near coal mine and near pop centers

  • already or soon economically obsolete

Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE)

• Tries to take all costs into account.

• Projected over lifetime of plant:

  • disagreement over lifetime → different LCOEs.

  • If you get it wrong, …

  • … you may lose a lot of money.

Following are ballpark inflation-adjusted figures, differ by location, regulation, etc.

Ballpark LCOEs Per Mwh

Probably have triple the variable costs in 2022, but LCOE is about planning for 30-50 years. Price probably more likely more like 2020 than 2022.

Clean Energy

In sum:

  Problem is No Longer Cheap Generation!

  Problem Now is Cheap Energy Storage!

Solve it, and wind/solar will take over.

Energy Storage / Batteries

• Think $200/MWh

  • it costs $10 to buy lunch and $100 to eat it in 20 minutes!

• Main Li Problem: wears out after 1,000+ cycles.

  • see above. If 10,000+ cycles at same price, good-bye fossil fuels for electricity and short transport.

  • heat is different. think half-price on E.

  • oversea transport is different.

Energy Provision 2015, Twh

Energy Forecast 2050, Twh

Hydrogen: Bad Idea, Cars

OTHERS NOT DISCUSSED

• Emissions not primarily a US but global problem

• Industrial, Steel, Cement Heat and Inputs

• Agriculture: Very tough.

• Methane super-emitters (plus many small issues)

• Sequestration (Timber! Algae, etc.)

• Geoengineering

  • 1/10,000 the cost; but also problems

• Lots of good changes, many more modest