Etiquette
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Do not leave your computer or notebook open when we have speakers.
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Please pay attention, and ask good questions.
READ
- You must read the book for the final and information.
More Energy and Power
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Book contains explanations about Watts and Watt-hours, power and energy.
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We need to wrangle about 150 PWh of energy within one generation.
Situation Today
Green Hydrogen
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Hopeless, because it is too expensive.
- Green = 10x NatGas cost today; maybe 2x in 40 years?
- Unknown Use Cases. Given whatever E cost:
- Think batteries for overnight storage (whatever price of E)
- Think E → salt → heat , instead of E → hydrogen → heat
- Long-Distance Transport
- Maybe…if competitive
Nuclear Power
- Painful regulation.
- Some regulation is absolutely needed,
- though much NRC regulations has remained just stupid.
- (Even dumber in Germany now.)
- Did NRC regulation kill nuclear power?
- probably not
- same problem have appeared in every country
- → not just NRC
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Hopeless, because today’s reactors are economically uncompetitive against NatGas and clean energy.
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Future (small?) reactors could become competitive…maybe
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Humanity could sure use more energy solutions.
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Fusion plants are economically no different.
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If someone solves the clean-energy storage problem, nuclear plants could be obsolete before they even open.
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Many other problems, too, but probably solvable
- Absolutely dead-serious and need consideration, though.
Batteries
- Not good enough for energy density and for cost today for complete takeover.
- grid means some places need just 4h; Li already great!
- not cost-effective for 12 hours (NatGas).
- Improving every year. They will be good enough.
- → optimal choice: go slow!
Lithium Chemistries
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Modest toxicity, clean mining, water reactive.
- Anode and cathode make huge difference
- dendrites (tendrils); capacity.
- component costs
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Batteries are getting much better every year, soon 3,000 cycles; could perhaps become 100,000 cycles!
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Plenty of lithium (e.g., Salton Sea)
- price: $1,200/KWh in 2010; $150/KWh in 2020! $75/KWh in 2035?
Other Chemistries
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Many different possible chemistries
- Watch out for flow batteries, etc.
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Solve the storage cost problem and fossil fuels are done.
- Clean energy generation is already much cheaper.
Clean Energy (=Usually Electricity)
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Lots of FUD, often surreptitious.
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Recycling of turbines is not a problem.
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Large area needed is not a problem.
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size of Massachusetts?
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compare to agriculture (and not competing!)
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should be placed close to use and grid
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Huge energy transition takes lots of time.
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Optimal deployment is slow while costs are coming down.
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There will be many short-term delays and hickups
Dispatchable (Storage)
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All heat plants that don’t operate 24/7 are very cost inefficient.
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Even otherwise cheap NatGas plants.
Grid/Allocation problems
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Tremendous
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Time and Location matters
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uncertainty (supply and demand);
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short-term (which plants to switch on);
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long-term (which plants to build where);
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how to move E around (transmission).
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Balancing Act: Markets and Regulation
- historically encumbered in the USA
World
- Even more heterogeneous than USA.
**It is not enough to decarbonize US! In fact, it’s almost useless. **
USA
| U.S. | NatGas | Coal | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power | 45\% | 20\% | 10\% |
| Energy | 40\% | 20\% | 9\% |
| U.S. | Nuclear | Hydro | Solar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power | 10\% | 10\% | 5\% |
| Energy | 20\% | 7\% | 2\% |
Power/Energy Mix Comparison
| Nuke | GeoT | Coal | Gas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 20\% | 1\% | 19\% | 40\% |
| World | 10\% | 0\% | 37\% | 24\% |
| Hydro | Wind | Solar | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 7\% | 9\% | 2\% | 2\% |
| World | 16\% | 5\% | 3\% | 5\% |
Utility-Scale High Fixed Costs
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Almost all cases: First-order is fixed cost
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built or not built
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30-year replacement or new needs
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Rest (variable cost) is often much lower.
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Amazingly, solar PV fixed cost is now getting so cheap that NatGas plants are installing it to save on NatGas!
New Plants: USA / OECD / China+India+
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Within the OECD:
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For many years now, really only new Wind and Solar plants have made sense;
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will probably continue; explain below why.
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Beyond the OECD:
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Lots of Coal.
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usually near coal mine and near pop centers
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already or soon economically obsolete
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Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE)
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Tries to take all costs into account.
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Projected over lifetime of plant:
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disagreement over lifetime → different LCOEs.
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If you get it wrong, …
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… you may lose a lot of money.
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Following are ballpark inflation-adjusted figures, differ by location, regulation, etc.
Ballpark LCOEs Per Mwh
| Type | Today | est 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | $70 | $60 |
| Gas, Always On | $40 | $45+ |
| Coal | $75 | $65+ |
Probably have triple the variable costs in 2022, but LCOE is about planning for 30-50 years. Price probably more likely more like 2020 than 2022.
| Type | Today | est 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | $70 | $60 |
| Gas, Always On | $40 | $45+ |
| Coal | $75 | $65+ |
| Solar Panels, Roof | $100 | $30 |
| Solar Panels, Utility | $35 | $15 |
| Wind, onshore | $35 | $20 |
| Geothermal | $35 |
| Type | Today | est 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Solar Panels, Utility | $35 | $15 |
| Wind, onshore | $35 | $20 |
| Hydro | $55 | |
| Gas, Dispatch | $200 |
Clean Energy
In sum:
Problem is No Longer Cheap Generation!
Problem Now is Cheap Energy Storage!
Solve it, and wind/solar will take over.
Energy Storage / Batteries
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Think $200/MWh
- it costs $10 to buy lunch and $100 to eat it in 20 minutes!
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Main Li Problem: wears out after 1,000+ cycles.
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see above. If 10,000+ cycles at same price, good-bye fossil fuels for electricity and short transport.
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heat is different. think half-price on E.
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oversea transport is different.
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Energy Provision 2015, Twh
| Coal | NatGas | Nuke | Hydro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,410 | 1,317 | 797 | 249 |
| China | 3,860 | 148 | 161 | 1,103 |
| World | 9,621 | 5,585 | 2,440 | 3,843 |
| Wind | Solar | (Oth) | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 191 | 39 | (2.2\%) | 4,092 |
| China | 186 | 45 | (1.1\%) | 5,562 |
| World | 828 | 263 | (2.6\%) | 23,171 |
Energy Forecast 2050, Twh
| Coal | NatGas | Nuke | Hydro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 593 | 1,953 | 594 | 294 |
| China | 3,556 | 803 | 1,002 | 1,448 |
| World | 8,115 | 7,306 | 3,025 | 5,548 |
| Wind | Solar | (Oth) | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 790 | 1,071 | (3.0\%) | 5,458 |
| China | 1,001 | 3,379 | (0.4\%) | 11,230 |
| World | 6,833 | 10,152 | (2.3\%) | 41,953 |
Hydrogen: Bad Idea, Cars
OTHERS NOT DISCUSSED
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Emissions not primarily a US but global problem
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Industrial, Steel, Cement Heat and Inputs
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Agriculture: Very tough.
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Methane super-emitters (plus many small issues)
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Sequestration (Timber! Algae, etc.)
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Geoengineering
- 1/10,000 the cost; but also problems
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Lots of good changes, many more modest