Recap

• Climate change is coming.

  • Expected Warming: $\approx$ 2-3°C.

  • More catastrophic scenarios possible.

• Fighting CC is expensive and can only be done collectively and at huge scale.

  • Expected Effect: $\approx$ 0.5°C.

• CC will be bad for billions of people.

• Fossil fuels’ PM 2.5 kills mlns every year.

• But the world will not end.

Today’s Environmentalism

• Whine and lament:

  • The planet is in grave danger.

  • Humanity is barreling towards extinction.

  • The world is stupid, greedy, and suicidal.

• Ergo

  • work on your carbon footprint,

  • demonstrate at UN COP Conf,

  • meditate and medicate.

• Repeat next year.

Empowering Status Quo

• What are you for?

  • radioactive nuclear power?
  • fish-killing hydroelectric dams?
  • plant-killing lithium mining?
  • bird-killing windmills?
  • desert-ecosystem killing solar cells?
  • geothermal plants (in the desert)?
  • view-killing new transmission lines?
  • eco-destroying tree felling?
  • industrial agriculture and manufacturing?

Public Support

• Is your proposal just a minority view or can it become the majority view?

  • Locally, nationally and/or internationally?

  • → If minority only, it will likely die.

• World will need to sustain 10 bn people.

  • Fight population growth?

  • How? Ideas welcome.

Realism

• Lots of red pills 💊 in this chapter.

• Live with human nature.

  • Humans are too materialistic — yes!

  • So are you!

  • So am I!

---

• The problem is addressing the many, not the few.

• You will not change 8-10 billion people,

  • especially the poorer 6 billion,

  • whether you like it or not.

Chapter 7: Realistic Solutions

1. Must work around the world.

   • Not all places are identical.

2. Must work over decades and generations.

3. Must not be too much against self-interest.

   • A little could be ok.

4. Must be able to sustain majority support.

5. Needs to work for 6-7 billion people in China, India, and Africa.

Viable Solutions

• Must be widely supportable,

  • ideally, super-majority,

  • locally, nationally, globally,

  • even in tough times.

• Must be economically not too harmful,

  • modest sacrifices may be possible.

• Ideally should be catalytic changes,

  • one-time one-way, then hard to reverse.

Real Actions

• Build trucks to get humanity to the goal

  • Research NOW

  • Develop SOON

  • Get ready for deployment asap.

  • Deploy FOAK early.

• Will innovation work?

  • Most likely yes, but not certain.

  • This is the nature of RDD.

  • Some will fail.

Start Today

• Plans for 30-50 years are important, too,

• Long-term plans are not my ‘schtick’.

  • Mine is: what can we do this decade?

  • 30-50 years from now seems less important to me than today,

    • if only because I will be dead. ;-)

  • I leave distant future to bigger minds.

Can A Country Go It Alone?

• Old-fashioned CO~2~ curbing solutions.

  • Deploying locally, not in cheapest location, would be way more expensive (LDR).

  • Frankly, not a realistic approach for effective world CO~2~ reduction.

  • It’s not happening.

    • Why will this change?

    • Really? Are you sure?

---

• No country or bloc can fight CC alone.

  • Alone, countries can only adapt, not fight.

💊

 

Opinion: by the time OECD (or 2*US) could be (painfully) decarbonized the old-fashioned way, the rest of the world will already emit far more. Sisyphean?

Face Economic Tradeoffs

• Look them in the eye!

• I did not design the world. It is what it is.

• Denial is never a great strategy!

  • This is not just for climate-change denial.

  • It also applies to climate-change fighting realities.

 

• What will the public support?

💊

Us / Oecd Tradeoffs

Reminder: Warming slowdown from CO~2~ curbs will not be 2.5°C, but only 0.5°C; and beneficial effects will not be felt greatly for decades. These facts are not my fault.

• 35 years zero carbon → 0.1°C:

  • Make college free or lower temp by 0.1°C ?

  • Double all teacher salaries or 0.1°C ?

• Realistically

  • What will the US commit to?

  • What will the OECD commit to?

💊

World Tradeoffs (Worse)

• What can environmentalists sustain public support for, and for many decades?

• Many countries have little to lose.

  • Russia and Canada may even gain.

  • Most inland countries will likely be ok.

  • Most countries face more urgent problems.

• Will China, India, Africa commit?

  • If so, will they spend resources on GHG curbs for the world, or on local adaptation?

Typical Survey Answers

Even in richest countries:

• Widely supported sacrifices on half of CC seems to be $\approx$ $100/year.

• Actual needs are $\approx$ $5,000/year.

  • This assumes old-fashioned CO~2~ curbs and taxes.

  • It does not assume technological investment.

 

If you can manage to convince for more, great. I just doubt it.

The World Apocalype?

• The world will not end.

Reminder: Warming slowdown from CO~2~ curbs will not be 2.5°C, but only 0.5°C; and beneficial effects will not be felt greatly for decades. These facta are not my fault.

• It sucks that the sun goes down at night, but there is nothing we can do about it.

💊

PS: We can try to find shelter for the night.

Actually, there are some things we can do about CC.

What Can We Do?

• Many things, but they won’t be perfect.

• Measures must be efficient and effective.

 

• Not wellness measures.

 

• Don’t blame me. I did not design the world.

1. Increase Innovation

• RDD: Research, Development, and Deployment.

• ‘Finesse’ knowledge sharing.

• Public-Private Collaboration

• Accept risk and failure in R&D.

• Offer X-Prizes?

• Deploy FOAK.

• Educate engineers, entrepreneurs, and public.

2. Tax Local Pollution

• Local fossil-fuel taxes are globally not first-best solutions.

  • They are too low, but could go a long way.

  • They could speed up clean technology and the demise of coal.

3. Forestation

• Obvious cheap choice.

• Bipartisan in many countries.

• Invest in forestation research, too.

---

• World Goal?

  • Not a plan but a dream.

  • Increase forestation and lumbed harvesting for capture of 2 GtCO~2~ per year?

  • Cover looming human emission increases?!

  • Not perfect, but a lot better than now nada.

4. Price Electricity By Time Of Day

• Free electricity from 10am to 5pm.

  • Or during daytime?

  • Or when wind blows and sun shines?

  • Or with internet broadcast of prices?

  • Customers will adjust e-demand.

• → will greatly reduce e-storage needs.

• → will solve much of e-storage tech problem.

5. Uproot Bad Habits

• Change habits:

  • Change e-usage patterns.

  • Address efficiency paradox (washer).

  • Some coercive mandates (e.g., LED) for initial economies of scale.

  • Sunstein-Thaler nudges.

  • Use product marketing tools:

    • advertising, guarantees, introductory pricing.

6. Reverse Technological Lockins

• Worked great for LED bulbs.

• Working great for cars.

 

• What’s next?

7. Coordinate Transitions

• Expensive Electric Grid Overhaul !!!

• Bidirectional information signaling.

  • Internet and line can give current and signal near future info on demand, supply, and prices.

• Lots of devil in details:

  • Incentives, exact protocol, cyber security.

• Make clean-plant hookups easier.

  • Make it free?

8. Reduce Green Red Tape

• Needs good system balance.

  • Smart decisions within 1-2 not 10-20 years.

  • Cut both regulatory and legal hurdles.

• Concierge Service:

  • Costs money,

  • will be fought by incumbents,

  • easy to bedevil.

9. Free Federal Land Leases

Auction Federal 30-year land leases:

• Foresting with harvesting,

• Solar farms,

• Wind turbine farms.

If need be, price could be zero.

Revocable with penalty upon non-performance.

Warning: process could be badly subverted.

10. Kill Worst Emitters

• Should be worldwide.

• Reasonably internationally agreeable,

  • with some international cross-subsidies?

Many Other Ignored Issues

• Adaptation will be important part,

• but this is not a solution to CC.

 

• Many crises beyond climate:

  • Species and Habitat Extinction.

  • Culture Wars (not just within US).

  • Weapons Technology.

Individual Contributions

• Change your carbon footprint and behavior?

  • See unrealistic lists from Chapter 7.

• Wellness sells eyeballs to rich people

  • Will not reduce CO~2~ in atmosphere.

• Carbon-shaming?

  • Don’t be stupid.

If anything, stop offending people you want to bring on board; deescalate outrage, and detribalize.

You

• Build a career in relevant science, technology, entrepreneurship, and business.

  • Better than in law and finance,

  • but both law and finance can be used for the good, too.

Be realistic and don’t feel guilty. Most graduates need to pay off student loans rather than pursue ulterior motives. Maybe in some distant future?

You

1. Research better technology.

2. Invent better mousetraps.

   • Especially improve energy storage and agriculture.

3. Deploy better technology.

   • Become filthy rich (or fail miserably).

 

#3 is the most difficult.

Musk is not a scientist, inventor, or engineer. He is a businessman.

You

• Educate others what’s real and what’s not.

• Lead others, even as politician, if you can stomach it.

   

• Write an honest book and teach a class.

  • Now you know what I know, so

  • do something useful in your life with it.