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  pdftitle={Transition},
  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
  hidelinks,
  pdfcreator={LaTeX via pandoc}}
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\title{Transition}
\subtitle{I feel the need, the need for speed. --- Pete `Maverick'
Mitchell.}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

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\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}{Recap}
\protect\hypertarget{recap}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Climate change is coming.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Expected Warming: \(\approx\) 2-3°C.
  \item
    More catastrophic scenarios possible.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Fighting CC is expensive and can only be done collectively and at huge
  scale.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Expected Effect: \(\approx\) 0.5°C.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  CC will be bad for billions of people.
\item
  Fossil fuels' PM 2.5 kills mlns every year.
\item
  \textbf{\emph{But the world will not end.}}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Today's Environmentalism}
\protect\hypertarget{todays-environmentalism}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Whine and lament:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    \emph{The planet is in grave danger}.
  \item
    \emph{Humanity is barreling towards extinction.}
  \item
    The world is stupid, greedy, and suicidal.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Ergo

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    work on your carbon footprint,
  \item
    demonstrate at UN COP Conf,
  \item
    meditate and medicate.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Repeat next year.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Empowering Status Quo}
\protect\hypertarget{empowering-status-quo}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  What are you for?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    radioactive nuclear power?
  \item
    fish-killing hydroelectric dams?
  \item
    plant-killing lithium mining?
  \item
    bird-killing windmills?
  \item
    desert-ecosystem killing solar cells?
  \item
    geothermal plants (in the desert)?
  \item
    view-killing new transmission lines?
  \item
    eco-destroying tree felling?
  \item
    industrial agriculture and manufacturing?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Public Support}
\protect\hypertarget{public-support}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Is your proposal just a minority view or can it become the majority
  view?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Locally, nationally and/or internationally?
  \item
    → \textbf{\emph{If minority only, it will likely die.}}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  World will need to sustain 10 bn people.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Fight population growth?
  \item
    How? Ideas welcome.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Realism}
\protect\hypertarget{realism}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Lots of red pills \pill in this chapter.
\item
  Live with human nature.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Humans are too materialistic --- yes!
  \item
    \textbf{So are you!}
  \item
    \textbf{So am I!}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  The problem is addressing the many, not the few.
\item
  You will not change 8-10 billion people,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    especially the poorer 6 billion,
  \item
    whether you like it or not.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Chapter 7: Realistic Solutions}
\protect\hypertarget{chapter-7-realistic-solutions}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Must work around the world.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Not all places are identical.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Must work over decades and generations.
\item
  Must not be too much against self-interest.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    A little could be ok.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Must be able to sustain majority support.
\item
  Needs to work for 6-7 billion people in China, India, and Africa.
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Viable Solutions}
\protect\hypertarget{viable-solutions}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Must be widely supportable,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    ideally, super-majority,
  \item
    locally, nationally, globally,
  \item
    even in tough times.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Must be economically not too harmful,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    modest sacrifices may be possible.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Ideally should be catalytic changes,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    one-time one-way, then hard to reverse.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Real Actions}
\protect\hypertarget{real-actions}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Build trucks to get humanity to the goal

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    \textbf{\emph{Research NOW}}
  \item
    \textbf{\emph{Develop SOON}}
  \item
    Get ready for deployment asap.
  \item
    \textbf{\emph{Deploy FOAK early.}}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Will innovation work?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Most likely yes, but not certain.
  \item
    This is the nature of RDD.
  \item
    Some will fail.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Start Today}
\protect\hypertarget{start-today}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Plans for 30-50 years are important, too,
\item
  Long-term plans are not my `schtick'.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Mine is: what can we do \emph{this} decade?
  \item
    30-50 years from now seems less important to me than today,

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      if only because I will be dead. ;-)
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    I leave distant future to \emph{bigger minds}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Can A Country Go It Alone?}
\protect\hypertarget{can-a-country-go-it-alone}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Old-fashioned CO\textsubscript{2} curbing solutions.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Deploying locally, not in cheapest location, would be way more
    expensive (LDR).
  \item
    Frankly, not a realistic approach for effective world
    CO\textsubscript{2} reduction.
  \item
    It's not happening.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Why will this change?
    \item
      Really? Are you sure?
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \textbf{\emph{No country or bloc can fight CC alone.}}

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Alone, countries can only adapt, not fight.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\pill

~

\begin{quote}
Opinion: by the time OECD (or 2*US) could be (painfully) decarbonized
the old-fashioned way, the rest of the world will already emit far more.
Sisyphean?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Face Economic Tradeoffs}
\protect\hypertarget{face-economic-tradeoffs}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \emph{Look them in the eye!}
\item
  I did not design the world. It is what it is.
\item
  Denial is never a great strategy!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    This is not just for climate-change denial.
  \item
    It also applies to climate-change fighting realities.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  What will the public support?
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Us / Oecd Tradeoffs}
\protect\hypertarget{us-oecd-tradeoffs}{}
\begin{quote}
Reminder: Warming slowdown from CO\textsubscript{2}
\textbf{\emph{curbs}} will not be 2.5°C, but only 0.5°C; and beneficial
effects will not be felt greatly for decades. These facts are not my
fault.
\end{quote}

\begin{itemize}
\item
  35 years zero carbon → 0.1°C:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Make college free or lower temp by 0.1°C ?
  \item
    Double all teacher salaries or 0.1°C ?
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Realistically

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    What will the US commit to?
  \item
    What will the OECD commit to?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{World Tradeoffs (Worse)}
\protect\hypertarget{world-tradeoffs-worse}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  What can environmentalists sustain public support for, and for many
  decades?
\item
  Many countries have little to lose.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Russia and Canada may even gain.
  \item
    Most inland countries will likely be ok.
  \item
    Most countries face more urgent problems.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Will China, India, Africa commit?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    If so, will they spend resources on GHG curbs for the world, or on
    local adaptation?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Typical Survey Answers}
\protect\hypertarget{typical-survey-answers}{}
Even in richest countries:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Widely supported sacrifices on half of CC seems to be \(\approx\)
  \$100/year.
\item
  Actual needs are \(\approx\) \$5,000/year.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    This assumes old-fashioned CO\textsubscript{2} curbs and taxes.
  \item
    It does not assume technological investment.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
If you can manage to convince for more, great. I just doubt it.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The World Apocalype?}
\protect\hypertarget{the-world-apocalype}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  The world will not end.
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Reminder: Warming slowdown from CO\textsubscript{2}
\textbf{\emph{curbs}} will not be 2.5°C, but only 0.5°C; and beneficial
effects will not be felt greatly for decades. These facta are not my
fault.
\end{quote}

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  It sucks that the sun goes down at night, but there is nothing we can
  do about it.
\end{itemize}

\pill

\begin{quote}
PS: We can try to find shelter for the night.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
Actually, there are some things we \emph{can} do about CC.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{What Can We Do?}
\protect\hypertarget{what-can-we-do}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Many things, but they won't be perfect.
\item
  Measures must be efficient and effective.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Not \emph{wellness} measures.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Don't blame me. I did not design the world.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{1. Increase Innovation}
\protect\hypertarget{increase-innovation}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  RDD: Research, Development, and Deployment.
\item
  `Finesse' knowledge sharing.
\item
  Public-Private Collaboration
\item
  Accept risk and failure in R\&D.
\item
  Offer X-Prizes?
\item
  Deploy FOAK.
\item
  Educate engineers, \emph{entrepreneurs}, and public.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{2. Tax Local Pollution}
\protect\hypertarget{tax-local-pollution}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Local fossil-fuel taxes are globally not first-best solutions.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    They are too low, but could go a long way.
  \item
    They could speed up clean technology and the demise of coal.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{3. Forestation}
\protect\hypertarget{forestation}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Obvious cheap choice.
\item
  Bipartisan in many countries.
\item
  Invest in forestation research, too.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  World Goal?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Not a plan but a dream.
  \item
    Increase forestation and lumbed harvesting for capture of 2
    GtCO\textsubscript{2} per year?
  \item
    Cover looming human emission increases?!
  \item
    Not perfect, but a lot better than now nada.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{4. Price Electricity By Time Of Day}
\protect\hypertarget{price-electricity-by-time-of-day}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Free electricity from 10am to 5pm.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Or during daytime?
  \item
    Or when wind blows and sun shines?
  \item
    Or with internet broadcast of prices?
  \item
    Customers will adjust e-demand.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  → will greatly reduce e-storage needs.
\item
  → will solve much of e-storage tech problem.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{5. Uproot Bad Habits}
\protect\hypertarget{uproot-bad-habits}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Change habits:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Change e-usage patterns.
  \item
    Address efficiency paradox (washer).
  \item
    Some coercive mandates (e.g., LED) for initial economies of scale.
  \item
    Sunstein-Thaler \textbf{nudges}.
  \item
    Use product marketing tools:

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      advertising, guarantees, introductory pricing.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{6. Reverse Technological Lockins}
\protect\hypertarget{reverse-technological-lockins}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Worked great for LED bulbs.
\item
  Working great for cars.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  What's next?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{7. Coordinate Transitions}
\protect\hypertarget{coordinate-transitions}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \textbf{\emph{Expensive Electric Grid Overhaul !!!}}
\item
  Bidirectional information signaling.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Internet and line can give current and signal near future info on
    demand, supply, and prices.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Lots of devil in details:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Incentives, exact protocol, cyber security.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Make clean-plant hookups easier.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Make it free?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{8. Reduce Green Red Tape}
\protect\hypertarget{reduce-green-red-tape}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Needs good system balance.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Smart decisions within 1-2 not 10-20 years.
  \item
    Cut both regulatory and legal hurdles.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Concierge Service:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Costs money,
  \item
    will be fought by incumbents,
  \item
    easy to bedevil.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{9. Free Federal Land Leases}
\protect\hypertarget{free-federal-land-leases}{}
Auction Federal 30-year land leases:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Foresting with harvesting,
\item
  Solar farms,
\item
  Wind turbine farms.
\end{itemize}

If need be, price could be zero.

\begin{quote}
Revocable with penalty upon non-performance.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
Warning: process could be badly subverted.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{10. Kill Worst Emitters}
\protect\hypertarget{kill-worst-emitters}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Should be worldwide.
\item
  Reasonably internationally agreeable,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    with some international cross-subsidies?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Many Other Ignored Issues}
\protect\hypertarget{many-other-ignored-issues}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Adaptation will be important part,
\item
  but this is \emph{not} a solution to CC.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Many crises beyond climate:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Species and Habitat Extinction.
  \item
    Culture Wars (not just within US).
  \item
    Weapons Technology.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Individual Contributions}
\protect\hypertarget{individual-contributions}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Change your carbon footprint and behavior?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    See unrealistic lists from Chapter 7.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \emph{Wellness} sells eyeballs to rich people

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Will not reduce CO\textsubscript{2} in atmosphere.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Carbon-shaming?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Don't be stupid.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
If anything, stop offending people you want to bring on board;
deescalate outrage, and detribalize.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{You}
\protect\hypertarget{you}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Build a career in relevant science, technology, entrepreneurship, and
  business.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Better than in law and finance,
  \item
    but both law and finance can be used for the good, too.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Be realistic and don't feel guilty. Most graduates need to pay off
student loans rather than pursue ulterior motives. Maybe in some distant
future?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{You}
\protect\hypertarget{you-1}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Research better technology.
\item
  Invent better mousetraps.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Especially improve energy storage and agriculture.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Deploy better technology.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Become filthy rich (or fail miserably).
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}

~

\begin{quote}
\#3 is the most difficult.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
Musk is \emph{not} a scientist, inventor, or engineer. He is a
businessman.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{You}
\protect\hypertarget{you-2}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Educate others what's real and what's not.
\item
  Lead others, even as politician, if you can stomach it.
\end{itemize}

~ ~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Write an honest book and teach a class.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Now you know what I know, so
  \item
    do something useful in your life with it.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
