Recap
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Climate change is coming.
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Expected Warming: $\approx$ 2-3°C.
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More catastrophic scenarios possible.
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Fighting CC is expensive and can only be done collectively and at huge scale.
- Expected Effect: $\approx$ 0.5°C.
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CC will be bad for billions of people.
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Fossil fuels’ PM 2.5 kills mlns every year.
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But the world will not end.
Today’s Environmentalism
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Whine and lament:
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The planet is in grave danger.
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Humanity is barreling towards extinction.
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The world is stupid, greedy, and suicidal.
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Ergo
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work on your carbon footprint,
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demonstrate at UN COP Conf,
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meditate and medicate.
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Repeat next year.
Empowering Status Quo
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What are you for?
- radioactive nuclear power?
- fish-killing hydroelectric dams?
- plant-killing lithium mining?
- bird-killing windmills?
- desert-ecosystem killing solar cells?
- geothermal plants (in the desert)?
- view-killing new transmission lines?
- eco-destroying tree felling?
- industrial agriculture and manufacturing?
Public Support
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Is your proposal just a minority view or can it become the majority view?
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Locally, nationally and/or internationally?
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→ If minority only, it will likely die.
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World will need to sustain 10 bn people.
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Fight population growth?
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How? Ideas welcome.
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Realism
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Lots of red pills 💊 in this chapter.
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Live with human nature.
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Humans are too materialistic — yes!
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So are you!
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So am I!
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The problem is addressing the many, not the few.
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You will not change 8-10 billion people,
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especially the poorer 6 billion,
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whether you like it or not.
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Chapter 7: Realistic Solutions
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Must work around the world.
- Not all places are identical.
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Must work over decades and generations.
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Must not be too much against self-interest.
- A little could be ok.
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Must be able to sustain majority support.
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Needs to work for 6-7 billion people in China, India, and Africa.
Viable Solutions
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Must be widely supportable,
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ideally, super-majority,
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locally, nationally, globally,
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even in tough times.
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Must be economically not too harmful,
- modest sacrifices may be possible.
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Ideally should be catalytic changes,
- one-time one-way, then hard to reverse.
Real Actions
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Build trucks to get humanity to the goal
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Research NOW
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Develop SOON
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Get ready for deployment asap.
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Deploy FOAK early.
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Will innovation work?
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Most likely yes, but not certain.
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This is the nature of RDD.
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Some will fail.
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Start Today
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Plans for 30-50 years are important, too,
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Long-term plans are not my ‘schtick’.
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Mine is: what can we do this decade?
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30-50 years from now seems less important to me than today,
- if only because I will be dead. ;-)
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I leave distant future to bigger minds.
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Can A Country Go It Alone?
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Old-fashioned CO~2~ curbing solutions.
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Deploying locally, not in cheapest location, would be way more expensive (LDR).
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Frankly, not a realistic approach for effective world CO~2~ reduction.
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It’s not happening.
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Why will this change?
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Really? Are you sure?
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No country or bloc can fight CC alone.
- Alone, countries can only adapt, not fight.
💊
Opinion: by the time OECD (or 2*US) could be (painfully) decarbonized the old-fashioned way, the rest of the world will already emit far more. Sisyphean?
Face Economic Tradeoffs
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Look them in the eye!
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I did not design the world. It is what it is.
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Denial is never a great strategy!
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This is not just for climate-change denial.
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It also applies to climate-change fighting realities.
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- What will the public support?
💊
Us / Oecd Tradeoffs
Reminder: Warming slowdown from CO~2~ curbs will not be 2.5°C, but only 0.5°C; and beneficial effects will not be felt greatly for decades. These facts are not my fault.
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35 years zero carbon → 0.1°C:
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Make college free or lower temp by 0.1°C ?
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Double all teacher salaries or 0.1°C ?
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Realistically
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What will the US commit to?
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What will the OECD commit to?
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💊
World Tradeoffs (Worse)
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What can environmentalists sustain public support for, and for many decades?
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Many countries have little to lose.
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Russia and Canada may even gain.
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Most inland countries will likely be ok.
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Most countries face more urgent problems.
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Will China, India, Africa commit?
- If so, will they spend resources on GHG curbs for the world, or on local adaptation?
Typical Survey Answers
Even in richest countries:
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Widely supported sacrifices on half of CC seems to be $\approx$ $100/year.
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Actual needs are $\approx$ $5,000/year.
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This assumes old-fashioned CO~2~ curbs and taxes.
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It does not assume technological investment.
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If you can manage to convince for more, great. I just doubt it.
The World Apocalype?
- The world will not end.
Reminder: Warming slowdown from CO~2~ curbs will not be 2.5°C, but only 0.5°C; and beneficial effects will not be felt greatly for decades. These facta are not my fault.
- It sucks that the sun goes down at night, but there is nothing we can do about it.
💊
PS: We can try to find shelter for the night.
Actually, there are some things we can do about CC.
What Can We Do?
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Many things, but they won’t be perfect.
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Measures must be efficient and effective.
- Not wellness measures.
- Don’t blame me. I did not design the world.
1. Increase Innovation
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RDD: Research, Development, and Deployment.
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‘Finesse’ knowledge sharing.
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Public-Private Collaboration
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Accept risk and failure in R&D.
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Offer X-Prizes?
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Deploy FOAK.
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Educate engineers, entrepreneurs, and public.
2. Tax Local Pollution
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Local fossil-fuel taxes are globally not first-best solutions.
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They are too low, but could go a long way.
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They could speed up clean technology and the demise of coal.
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3. Forestation
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Obvious cheap choice.
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Bipartisan in many countries.
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Invest in forestation research, too.
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World Goal?
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Not a plan but a dream.
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Increase forestation and lumbed harvesting for capture of 2 GtCO~2~ per year?
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Cover looming human emission increases?!
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Not perfect, but a lot better than now nada.
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4. Price Electricity By Time Of Day
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Free electricity from 10am to 5pm.
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Or during daytime?
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Or when wind blows and sun shines?
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Or with internet broadcast of prices?
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Customers will adjust e-demand.
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→ will greatly reduce e-storage needs.
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→ will solve much of e-storage tech problem.
5. Uproot Bad Habits
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Change habits:
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Change e-usage patterns.
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Address efficiency paradox (washer).
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Some coercive mandates (e.g., LED) for initial economies of scale.
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Sunstein-Thaler nudges.
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Use product marketing tools:
- advertising, guarantees, introductory pricing.
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6. Reverse Technological Lockins
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Worked great for LED bulbs.
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Working great for cars.
- What’s next?
7. Coordinate Transitions
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Expensive Electric Grid Overhaul !!!
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Bidirectional information signaling.
- Internet and line can give current and signal near future info on demand, supply, and prices.
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Lots of devil in details:
- Incentives, exact protocol, cyber security.
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Make clean-plant hookups easier.
- Make it free?
8. Reduce Green Red Tape
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Needs good system balance.
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Smart decisions within 1-2 not 10-20 years.
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Cut both regulatory and legal hurdles.
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Concierge Service:
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Costs money,
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will be fought by incumbents,
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easy to bedevil.
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9. Free Federal Land Leases
Auction Federal 30-year land leases:
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Foresting with harvesting,
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Solar farms,
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Wind turbine farms.
If need be, price could be zero.
Revocable with penalty upon non-performance.
Warning: process could be badly subverted.
10. Kill Worst Emitters
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Should be worldwide.
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Reasonably internationally agreeable,
- with some international cross-subsidies?
Many Other Ignored Issues
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Adaptation will be important part,
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but this is not a solution to CC.
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Many crises beyond climate:
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Species and Habitat Extinction.
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Culture Wars (not just within US).
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Weapons Technology.
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Individual Contributions
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Change your carbon footprint and behavior?
- See unrealistic lists from Chapter 7.
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Wellness sells eyeballs to rich people
- Will not reduce CO~2~ in atmosphere.
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Carbon-shaming?
- Don’t be stupid.
If anything, stop offending people you want to bring on board; deescalate outrage, and detribalize.
You
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Build a career in relevant science, technology, entrepreneurship, and business.
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Better than in law and finance,
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but both law and finance can be used for the good, too.
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Be realistic and don’t feel guilty. Most graduates need to pay off student loans rather than pursue ulterior motives. Maybe in some distant future?
You
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Research better technology.
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Invent better mousetraps.
- Especially improve energy storage and agriculture.
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Deploy better technology.
- Become filthy rich (or fail miserably).
#3 is the most difficult.
Musk is not a scientist, inventor, or engineer. He is a businessman.
You
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Educate others what’s real and what’s not.
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Lead others, even as politician, if you can stomach it.
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Write an honest book and teach a class.
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Now you know what I know, so
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do something useful in your life with it.
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