Hydrogen: Differences
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Three times as heavy as fossil fuels.
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One-quarter as dense as fossil fuels.
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→ Need to design new airplanes
- Airbus is on it.
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Transportable like natgas,
- but more corrosive.
Hydrogen: Production Cost
Cost, $ per MWh:
- Natgas Benchmark: $20
Hydrogen, $ per MWh:
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Brown (From NatGas): $27
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Blue (With Capture): $85
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Green (From Electrolysis): $130
Green Hydrogen Future?
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In 30 Years: $30/MWh (?)
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Natgas only a little cheaper?
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or maybe not even? Maybe catalyst breakthroughs?!
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Competitive against natgas?!
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May depend on location, too.
-
hydrogen needs no special natgas reservoirs.
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Green Hydrogen Future?
Speculating on hydrogen is speculating on:
-
Intermittent energy becomes nearly free.
- Facilitates cheap hydrogen.
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Energy storage remains expensive.
- Batteries can’t do most jobs better.
Green Hydrogen Future?
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Competitive against batteries?
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Cheaper solar electricity will also reduce cost of battery-stored electricity.
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Ionic bonds absorb and release energy easier than chemical covalent bonds.
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Batteries’ fixed cost may not scale easily,
- but batteries are in front of the cost curve.
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Wires are limited transport technology.
- Hydrogen from Saudi to Europe?!
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Hydrogen: Likely Future Uses
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Transportation, off-grid:
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Almost surely ships and planes.
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Maybe trucks, but we can disagree.
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Hydrogen for seasonal energy storage:
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Unlikely for a long time.
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Speculates on lack of progress in batteries.
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H already also used for fertilizer production.
Hydrogen: Less Likely Futures
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Any uses suitably satisfied with limited battery capacity:
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Batteries will likely always be more efficient.
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Think less resistance both in and out;
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Cheap solar energy reduces cost, too.
-
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Batteries will recharge within minutes.
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Batteries will improve greatly, too.
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What do you think? Near-grid transportation?
Hydrogen: Bad Idea, Cars
Hydrogen’s Kinetic Problem
Assume that hydrolysis is free and we have already have the input energy here.
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Efficiency of hydrogen for kinetic power:
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40\% with a fuel cell first making electricity;
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30\% with a piston combustion heat engine.
-
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Efficiency of battery: 75\%.
Hydrogen: Stupid Ideas, Heat
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Use electricity first to make hydrogen, then burn it to make heat.
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Instead, just make heat with electricity.
- Think electric arc furnace.
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→ Avoids hydrogen roundtrip.
Would you make hydrogen to immediately burn it??
Green Hydrogen Future?
- Invest??
Where can hydrogen replace natgas?
Where can hydrogen replace batteries?
Green hydrogen for storage, transportation, etc., may not happen for decades, if ever.
Industrial, Steel, Cement
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Tough to replace fossil fuels for heat.
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Fossil fuels are one-trick ponies,
- … and this is their trick!
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Industrial heat will probably be the last bastion of fossil fuels.
- Also, this discussion has omitted important issues on steel, cement, etc.
Agriculture
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Most models identify agricultural yields as primary cost of CC?!
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Seems pessimistic,
- like early clean-tech forecasts.
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Boffins are decoding life now.
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There is a lot we may be able to do.
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But it’s not certain.
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Agricultural Emissions
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About 20% of global GHG today.
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Methane is especially bad:
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Lots of methane From rice and cattle.
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Richer people like beef and milk, so their consumption will increase.
-
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Farmers also overuse nitrogen.
- Unrealistic: tax fertilizers more.
Agriculture
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Farmers are not stupid!
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They tend to be conservative,
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and they are politically very powerful.
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Farming is
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Result of millennia of improvements.
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Large and decentralized.
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Cut-throat business.
-
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Appeal to social or ecological conscience.
Ag Progress I
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Ag should be able to improve:
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Ag will need many different solutions,
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e.g., Asparagopsis, flooding, tilling, etc.
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Technology is progressing, too:
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GMO and CRISPR/Cas9 are promising,
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especially for poor country crops.
-
-
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Cut-throat business favors efficiency
- if more efficient to pollute…
(conflict-of-interest disclosure)
Ag Progress Ii
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Stupid environmentalism can cause big unnecessary environmental problems.
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Humanity cannot go back to nature!
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Boffins can reduce ecological problems!
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Chemicals are necessary to feed humanity, but created many environmental problems.
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Biotech now can be on side of environmentalism.
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Ag Progress Ii
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Newer better foods need consumer acceptance.
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Do not bless non-sense food labels.
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‘Natural foods’, my … .
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Can natural foods use pesticides?
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Cyanide is natural, too
-
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Is genetic modification intrinsically bad?
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What do you think you are eating today?
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How do you think you arose?
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Disclaimer
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Good reasons to oppose many farm practices:
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Such as inhumane animal farming.
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But please don’t oppose better crops.
-
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Good reasons to be careful, too:
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New technologies may have risks.
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Very unlikely. (Make boffins eat!)
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External application of chemicals more likely more harmful to people and environment.
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Personally, I pay extra for humanely farmed animals, but I have no illusions that this will change the world.
More Earth Solutions
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Food waste
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Landfills
USA Specific
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Cut stupid ethanol subsidies immediately.
Methane
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Not just USA or OECD problem.
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Often from oil&gas operations
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standard o&g mode is don’t cap, sell off.
- end-of-life deposits are ridiculously low.
-
Needs stronger penalties, incl. at EOL.
- reach-back liability?
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Needs constant measuring of emissions.
- easy satellite detection!
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Needs resistance to lobbying,
- hardest to manage, given reality.
-
Global Methane Emissions
Yet Others
Lots of mundane stuff. For example:
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Improve insulation:
- incentives, guarantees, financing.
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Thermal energy storage.
-
Heat pumps:
- 400% efficiency!
Conclusion
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Energy from fossil fuels is the world’s biggest pollution issue.
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Don’t be too bullish on hydrogen,
-
but hydrogen will likely play a role.
-
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Many other GHG emissions need clean solutions, too.
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Humanity can tackle agricultural & food emissions better.