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  pdftitle={Beyond Electrification},
  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
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\title{Beyond Electrification}
\subtitle{..and all the pieces matter --- Lester Freamon.}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen: Differences}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogen-differences}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Three times as heavy as fossil fuels.
\item
  One-quarter as dense as fossil fuels.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  → Need to design new airplanes

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Airbus is on it.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Transportable like natgas,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    but more corrosive.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen: Production Cost}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogen-production-cost}{}
Cost, \$ per MWh:

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Natgas Benchmark: \textbf{\$20}
\end{itemize}

~

Hydrogen, \$ per MWh:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Brown (From NatGas): \$27
\item
  Blue (With Capture): \$85
\item
  Green (From Electrolysis): \$130
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Green Hydrogen Future?}
\protect\hypertarget{green-hydrogen-future}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  In 30 Years: \$30/MWh (?)

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Natgas only a little cheaper?
  \item
    or maybe not even? Maybe catalyst breakthroughs?!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Competitive against natgas?!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    May depend on location, too.
  \item
    hydrogen needs no special natgas reservoirs.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Green Hydrogen Future?}
\protect\hypertarget{green-hydrogen-future-1}{}
Speculating on hydrogen is speculating on:

\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Intermittent energy becomes nearly free.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Facilitates cheap hydrogen.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Energy storage remains expensive.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Batteries can't do most jobs better.
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Green Hydrogen Future?}
\protect\hypertarget{green-hydrogen-future-2}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Competitive against batteries?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Cheaper solar electricity will also reduce cost of battery-stored
    electricity.
  \item
    Ionic bonds absorb and release energy easier than chemical covalent
    bonds.
  \item
    Batteries' fixed cost may not scale easily,

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      but batteries are \emph{in front of the cost curve}.
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Wires are limited transport technology.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Hydrogen from Saudi to Europe?!
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen: Likely Future Uses}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogen-likely-future-uses}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Transportation, off-grid:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Almost surely ships and planes.
  \item
    Maybe trucks, but we can disagree.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Hydrogen for seasonal energy storage:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Unlikely for a long time.
  \item
    Speculates on lack of progress in batteries.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
H already also used for fertilizer production.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen: Less Likely Futures}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogen-less-likely-futures}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Any uses suitably satisfied with \emph{limited} battery capacity:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Batteries will likely always be more efficient.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Think less resistance both in and out;
    \item
      Cheap solar energy reduces cost, too.
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Batteries will recharge within minutes.
  \item
    Batteries will improve greatly, too.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
What do you think? Near-grid transportation?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen: Bad Idea, Cars}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogen-bad-idea-cars}{}
\includegraphics{hydrogen-vs-battery-car.jpg}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen's Kinetic Problem}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogens-kinetic-problem}{}
Assume that hydrolysis is free and we have already have the input energy
here.

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Efficiency of hydrogen for kinetic power:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    40\% with a fuel cell \emph{first} making electricity;
  \item
    30\% with a piston combustion heat engine.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Efficiency of battery: 75\%.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen: Stupid Ideas, Heat}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogen-stupid-ideas-heat}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Use electricity first to make hydrogen, then burn it to make heat.
\item
  Instead, just make heat with electricity.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Think
    \href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_arc_furnace}{electric
    arc furnace}.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  → Avoids hydrogen roundtrip.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Would you make hydrogen to immediately burn it??
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Green Hydrogen Future?}
\protect\hypertarget{green-hydrogen-future-3}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Invest??
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Where can hydrogen replace natgas?
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
Where can hydrogen replace batteries?
\end{quote}

~

\begin{quote}
Green hydrogen for storage, transportation, etc., may not happen for
decades, if ever.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Industrial, Steel, Cement}
\protect\hypertarget{industrial-steel-cement}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Tough to replace fossil fuels for heat.
\item
  Fossil fuels are one-trick ponies,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    \ldots{} and this is their trick!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Industrial heat will probably be the last bastion of fossil fuels.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Also, this discussion has omitted important issues on steel, cement,
    etc.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Agriculture}
\protect\hypertarget{agriculture}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Most models identify agricultural yields as primary cost of CC?!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Seems pessimistic,

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      like early clean-tech forecasts.
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Boffins are decoding life now.
  \item
    There is a lot we may be able to do.
  \item
    But it's \emph{not} certain.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Agricultural Emissions}
\protect\hypertarget{agricultural-emissions}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  About 20\% of global GHG today.
\item
  Methane is especially bad:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Lots of methane From rice and cattle.
  \item
    Richer people like beef and milk, so their consumption will
    increase.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Farmers also overuse nitrogen.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Unrealistic: tax fertilizers more.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Agriculture}
\protect\hypertarget{agriculture-1}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Farmers are \textbf{\emph{not}} stupid!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    They tend to be conservative,
  \item
    and they are politically very powerful.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Farming is

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Result of millennia of improvements.
  \item
    Large and decentralized.
  \item
    Cut-throat business.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \sout{Appeal to social or ecological conscience.}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Ag Progress I}
\protect\hypertarget{ag-progress-i}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Ag should be able to improve:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Ag will need \emph{many} different solutions,
  \item
    e.g.,
    \href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asparagopsis}{Asparagopsis},
    flooding, tilling, etc.
  \item
    Technology is progressing, too:

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      GMO and CRISPR/Cas9 are promising,
    \item
      especially for poor country crops.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Cut-throat business favors efficiency

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    if more efficient to pollute\ldots{}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
(conflict-of-interest disclosure)
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Ag Progress Ii}
\protect\hypertarget{ag-progress-ii}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Stupid environmentalism can cause big unnecessary environmental
  problems.
\item
  Humanity cannot go back to nature!
\item
  Boffins can \emph{reduce} ecological problems!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Chemicals are necessary to feed humanity, but created many
    environmental problems.
  \item
    Biotech now can be on side of environmentalism.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Ag Progress Ii}
\protect\hypertarget{ag-progress-ii-1}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Newer better foods need consumer acceptance.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Do \emph{not} bless non-sense food labels.
  \item
    `Natural foods', my \ldots{} .

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Can natural foods use
      \href{https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2021/07/13/for-organic-and-conventional-farmers-coppers-hard-to-beat-for-treating-mildew/}{pesticides}?
    \item
      Cyanide is natural, too
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Is genetic modification intrinsically bad?

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      What do you think you are eating today?
    \item
      How do you think you arose?
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Disclaimer}
\protect\hypertarget{disclaimer}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Good reasons to oppose many farm practices:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Such as inhumane animal farming.
  \item
    But please don't oppose better crops.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Good reasons to be careful, too:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    New technologies may have risks.
  \item
    \emph{Very} unlikely. (Make boffins eat!)
  \item
    External application of chemicals more likely more harmful to people
    and environment.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Personally, I pay extra for humanely farmed animals, but I have no
illusions that this will change the world.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{More Earth Solutions}
\protect\hypertarget{more-earth-solutions}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Food waste
\item
  Landfills
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{block}{USA Specific}
\protect\hypertarget{usa-specific}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Cut stupid ethanol subsidies immediately.
\item
  \href{https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/15/when-are-we-going-to-stop-doing-stupid-in-the-name-of-going-green/}{Each
  gallon of ethanol uses more than a gallon of diesel.}
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Methane}
\protect\hypertarget{methane}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Not just USA or OECD problem.
\item
  Often from oil\&gas operations

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    standard o\&g mode is don't cap, sell off.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      end-of-life deposits are ridiculously low.
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Needs stronger penalties, incl.~at EOL.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      reach-back liability?
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Needs constant measuring of emissions.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      easy satellite detection!
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Needs resistance to lobbying,

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      hardest to manage, given reality.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Global Methane Emissions}
\protect\hypertarget{global-methane-emissions}{}
\includegraphics{copernicus.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Yet Others}
\protect\hypertarget{yet-others}{}
Lots of mundane stuff. For example:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Improve insulation:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    incentives, guarantees, financing.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Thermal energy storage.
\item
  Heat pumps:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    400\% efficiency!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Conclusion}
\protect\hypertarget{conclusion}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Energy from fossil fuels is the world's biggest pollution issue.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Don't be too bullish on hydrogen,
  \item
    but hydrogen will likely play a role.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Many other GHG emissions need clean solutions, too.
\item
  Humanity can tackle agricultural \& food emissions better.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
