Hydrogen: Bad Idea, Cars
..and all the pieces matter — Lester Freamon.
Ivo Welch
December 31, 2021
Three times as heavy as fossil fuels.
One-quarter as dense as fossil fuels.
→ Need to design new airplanes
Transportable like natgas,
Cost, $ per MWh:
Hydrogen, $ per MWh:
Brown (From NatGas): $27
Blue (With Capture): $85
Green (From Electrolysis): $130
In 30 Years: $30/MWh (?)
Natgas only a little cheaper?
or maybe not even? Maybe catalyst breakthroughs?!
Competitive against natgas?!
May depend on location, too.
hydrogen needs no special natgas reservoirs.
Speculating on hydrogen is speculating on:
Intermittent energy becomes nearly free.
Energy storage remains expensive.
Competitive against batteries?
Cheaper solar electricity will also reduce cost of battery-stored electricity.
Ionic bonds absorb and release energy easier than chemical covalent bonds.
Batteries’ fixed cost may not scale easily,
Wires are limited transport technology.
Transportation, off-grid:
Almost surely ships and planes.
Maybe trucks, but we can disagree.
Hydrogen for seasonal energy storage:
Unlikely for a long time.
Speculates on lack of progress in batteries.
H already also used for fertilizer production.
Any uses suitably satisfied with limited battery capacity:
Batteries will likely always be more efficient.
Think less resistance both in and out;
Cheap solar energy reduces cost, too.
Batteries will recharge within minutes.
Batteries will improve greatly, too.
What do you think? Near-grid transportation?
Assume that hydrolysis is free and we have already have the input energy here.
Efficiency of hydrogen for kinetic power:
40% with a fuel cell first making electricity;
30% with a piston combustion heat engine.
Efficiency of battery: 75%.
Use electricity first to make hydrogen, then burn it to make heat.
Instead, just make heat with electricity.
→ Avoids hydrogen roundtrip.
Would you make hydrogen to immediately burn it??
Where can hydrogen replace natgas?
Where can hydrogen replace batteries?
Green hydrogen for storage, transportation, etc., may not happen for decades, if ever.
Tough to replace fossil fuels for heat.
Fossil fuels are one-trick ponies,
Industrial heat will probably be the last bastion of fossil fuels.
Most models identify agricultural yields as primary cost of CC?!
Seems pessimistic,
Boffins are decoding life now.
There is a lot we may be able to do.
But it’s not certain.
About 20% of global GHG today.
Methane is especially bad:
Lots of methane From rice and cattle.
Richer people like beef and milk, so their consumption will increase.
Farmers also overuse nitrogen.
Farmers are not stupid!
They tend to be conservative,
and they are politically very powerful.
Farming is
Result of millennia of improvements.
Large and decentralized.
Cut-throat business.
Appeal to social or ecological conscience.
Ag should be able to improve:
Ag will need many different solutions,
e.g., Asparagopsis, flooding, tilling, etc.
Technology is progressing, too:
GMO and CRISPR/Cas9 are promising,
especially for poor country crops.
Cut-throat business favors efficiency
(conflict-of-interest disclosure)
Stupid environmentalism can cause big unnecessary environmental problems.
Humanity cannot go back to nature!
Boffins can reduce ecological problems!
Chemicals are necessary to feed humanity, but created many environmental problems.
Biotech now can be on side of environmentalism.
Newer better foods need consumer acceptance.
Do not bless non-sense food labels.
‘Natural foods’, my … .
Can natural foods use pesticides?
Cyanide is natural, too
Is genetic modification intrinsically bad?
What do you think you are eating today?
How do you think you arose?
Good reasons to oppose many farm practices:
Such as inhumane animal farming.
But please don’t oppose better crops.
Good reasons to be careful, too:
New technologies may have risks.
Very unlikely. (Make boffins eat!)
External application of chemicals more likely more harmful to people and environment.
Personally, I pay extra for humanely farmed animals, but I have no illusions that this will change the world.
Food waste
Landfills
Cut stupid ethanol subsidies immediately.
Not just USA or OECD problem.
Often from oil&gas operations
standard o&g mode is don’t cap, sell off.
Needs stronger penalties, incl. at EOL.
Needs constant measuring of emissions.
Needs resistance to lobbying,
Lots of mundane stuff. For example:
Improve insulation:
Thermal energy storage.
Heat pumps:
Energy from fossil fuels is the world’s biggest pollution issue.
Don’t be too bullish on hydrogen,
but hydrogen will likely play a role.
Many other GHG emissions need clean solutions, too.
Humanity can tackle agricultural & food emissions better.