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  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
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\title{Electricity}
\subtitle{Who turned out the lights? It's dark in here. Don't they pay
their electricity? --- Roger Rabbit}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}
**************** call gas on demand \$80-\$200.

**************** add price graph from p.316
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Why Electricity?}
\protect\hypertarget{why-electricity}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Clean.
\item
  High-quality.
\item
  Jack of all Trades:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Fossil fuels are one-trick ponies,
  \item
    → perfect economics only for heat.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Already know e-tech will improve greatly.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    No moonshots necessary but welcome.
  \item
    PS: Read up on primary vs.~nameplate power.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Heterogeneous}
\protect\hypertarget{heterogeneous}{}
Electrons are electrons, but

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Time and location matter

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Noon vs 8pm
  \item
    Nevada vs.~New York
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Allocation problems are tremendous:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    uncertainty (supply and demand);
  \item
    short-term (which plants to switch on);
  \item
    long-term (which plants to build where);
  \item
    how to move e around (transmission).
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{World}
\protect\hypertarget{world}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Even more heterogeneous than USA.
\item
  Discuss US / California first:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Illustrative only, and
  \item
    good to explain basic workings.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

~

\begin{quote}
\textbf{It is not enough to decarbonize US!}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Usa}
\protect\hypertarget{usa}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}cccc@{}}
\toprule()
U.S. & NatGas & Coal & Wind \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Power & 45\% & 20\% & 10\% \\
Energy & 40\% & 20\% & 9\% \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}

\begin{longtable}[]{@{}cccc@{}}
\toprule()
U.S. & Nuclear & Hydro & Solar \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Power & 10\% & 10\% & 5\% \\
Energy & 20\% & 7\% & 2\% \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Utility-Scale High Fixed Costs}
\protect\hypertarget{utility-scale-high-fixed-costs}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Plants are built primarily when

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    demand grows, and/or
  \item
    old plants age out.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  US demand is mostly stable:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    US builds new plants mostly when (old coal and nuclear plants) age
    out.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{New Plants: Usa}
\protect\hypertarget{new-plants-usa}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  For many years now, only Wind and Solar;

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    will probably continue; explain below why.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  A few new natgas plants on East Coast.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    \href{https://www.powermag.com/more-than-32-gw-of-new-gas-fired-power-plants-in-u-s-pipeline/}{32GW}
    (/500GW) in pipeline, though.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Very rare nuclear plant here and there.
\item
  No new coal plants, few new dams, etc.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    PS: Oil is always uneconomic, except in emergency generators. Used
    in 3rd world.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{New Plants: World, Other}
\protect\hypertarget{new-plants-world-other}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  China, India, etc.:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Large new building programs.
  \item
    Lots of new Wind and Solar plants.
  \item
    Some nuclear plants, some others.
  \item
    But \textbf{huge} coal plant building programs:

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      And new world record in 2021;
    \item
      And coal employs millions of people!
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Transmission Grid}
\protect\hypertarget{transmission-grid}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Transmission grid is expensive.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Think \$1-\$50/MWh.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Distance matters!
\item
  → Supply is cheaper close to demand.
\item
  Low current transmission cost only because of generation proximity.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Us Transmission Mess}
\protect\hypertarget{us-transmission-mess}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Complex regulation, tying in, etc.:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Regulators captured by utility companies,
  \item
    with some good reason,
  \item
    and a lot of lobbyists and lawyers,
  \item
    and big hurdles for competitive clean engineering innovators
    inexperienced in politics.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Electricity Allocation Problems}
\protect\hypertarget{electricity-allocation-problems}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Complex problems abound.
\item
  Only known good allocation system:
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{block}{~~~~ \textbf{\emph{Competitive Electricity Markets!}}}
\protect\hypertarget{competitive-electricity-markets}{}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Electricity Allocation Problems}
\protect\hypertarget{electricity-allocation-problems-1}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  But free market must be shepherded!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    alternative \emph{free-for-all} cannot work either;
  \item
    needs regulation, but is still somewhat manipulatable and indeed
    manipulated.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Compromises between scylla and charybdis.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{California}
\protect\hypertarget{california}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Details are fascinating stuff.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    They are important, but vary by place
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  In California (not elsewhere):

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Capacity auctions for new plants (3 years);
  \item
    Power auctions for delivery (daily).
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{California: Mar 21, 2021}
\protect\hypertarget{california-mar-21-2021}{}
\includegraphics{caiso-2021-03-21-a.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{California: Mar 21, 2021}
\protect\hypertarget{california-mar-21-2021-1}{}
\includegraphics{caiso-2021-03-21-b.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{California Power Mix, Mar 21, 2021}
\protect\hypertarget{california-power-mix-mar-21-2021}{}
\includegraphics{caiso-supply-20210321.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{\textbf{Usa} Power Mix}
\protect\hypertarget{usa-power-mix}{}
\includegraphics{eia-daily.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Add Pricing Info}
\protect\hypertarget{add-pricing-info}{}
\includegraphics{oasis-prices.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Inexact Classification}
\protect\hypertarget{inexact-classification}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Baseload Power.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Think Nuclear.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Intermittent Power.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Think Wind and Solar.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Storage (Dispatchable Power).

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Think Batteries and Hydroelectric Dams.
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Power Mix Comparison}
\protect\hypertarget{power-mix-comparison}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrrrr@{}}
\toprule()
& Nuke & GeoT & Coal & Gas \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Calif & 9\% & 5\% & 3\% & 34\% \\
USA & 20\% & 1\% & 19\% & 40\% \\
World & 10\% & 0\% & 37\% & 24\% \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}

\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrrrr@{}}
\toprule()
& Hydro & Wind & Solar & Other \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Calif & 18\% & 10\% & 12\% & 9\% \\
USA & 7\% & 9\% & 2\% & 2\% \\
World & 16\% & 5\% & 3\% & 5\% \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Generation Costs: Building Plants}
\protect\hypertarget{generation-costs-building-plants}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Electricity's biggest cost is typically upfront plant building cost:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Construction / capital.
  \item
    Plant scalability varies:

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      biggest scale needed for nuclear,
    \item
      most flexible scale for Wind and Solar.
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Cost of grid tie-in is high, too,

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      incl.~regulatory costs,
    \item
      \ldots{} and does not scale linearly.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Generation Costs: Running}
\protect\hypertarget{generation-costs-running}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\setcounter{enumi}{1}
\item
  Idle (Standby) Minimum Running Cost:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    capital interest costs;
  \item
    personnel and maintenance;
  \item
    obsolescence.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Active Generation Cost:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Fuel and Extra Wear:

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Highest for Fossil fuels;
    \item
      Medium for Nuclear;
    \item
      Lowest for Wind and Solar.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Levelized Cost Of Electricity (Lcoe)}
\protect\hypertarget{levelized-cost-of-electricity-lcoe}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Tries to take all costs into account.
\item
  Projected over lifetime of plant:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    disagreement over lifetime → different LCOEs.
  \item
    If you got it wrong, \ldots{}
  \item
    \ldots{} you may lose a lot of money.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Following are ballpark inflation-adjusted figures, differ by location,
regulation, etc.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Ballpark Lcoes Per Mwh}
\protect\hypertarget{ballpark-lcoes-per-mwh}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lcc@{}}
\toprule()
Type & Today & est 2050 \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Solar Panels, Roof & \$100 & \$30 \\
Solar Panels, Utility & \$35 & \$15 \\
Wind, onshore & \$35 & \$20 \\
--- & --- & --- \\
Geothermal & \$35 & \\
Nuclear & \$70 & \$60 \\
Gas, Always On & \$40 & \$45 \\
Coal & \$75 & \$65 \\
--- & --- & --- \\
Hydro & \$55 & \\
Gas, Dispatch & \$200 & \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Really? Wowee!}
\protect\hypertarget{really-wowee}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Wind and Solar are the cheapest large-scale sources of energy that
  civilization has \emph{ever} seen!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    \ldots{} and they will become even cheaper!
  \item
    Unbelievably cheap, too cheap to meter!

    \(\approx\) computers
  \item
    \ldots{} but they do not always work. ☹️
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Solved Problem!}
\protect\hypertarget{solved-problem}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Clean intermittent generation for cheap is a solved problem:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    \$15/MWh or \$5/MWh is relatively unimportant.
  \item
    The silicon solar cell component will soon be negligible part of
    solar plant cost.
  \item
    Costs will be primarily connections / running / maintenance.
  \item
    Often best to colocate Solar, Wind, Batteries to share connection
    and operation costs.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Natural Gas}
\protect\hypertarget{natural-gas}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Natgas is cheapest \textbf{on-demand} source of power \textbf{in the
  USA}:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Turn off, turn on.
  \item
    Nearly infinite capacity,
  \item
    but not as abundant everywhere else.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \$40-\$200/MWh --- cheap, tough to beat.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Maybe should add \$20/MWh for pollution.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Natgas often leaks on pipes and at EOL.
    \item
      Makes natgas look cleaner than it is.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Geothermal And Hydro (Storage)}
\protect\hypertarget{geothermal-and-hydro-storage}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Think \$100-\$250/MWh
\item
  Requires large scale:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Environmental opposition to hydro.
  \item
    PS: small-scale geothermal works well for home heating cooling and
    is economical!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Cheap running cost.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    No fuel required.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Very limited supply of good locations
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
PS: Also consider compressed air in caverns.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Nuclear Power (Again)}
\protect\hypertarget{nuclear-power-again}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Primary nuclear problem today:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Fixed cost (\$20 billion/plant).
  \item
    10 years: potentially obsolete before open.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Honest Disagreements:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Put your money where your mouth is?
  \item
    Gates, France, China are bullish.
  \item
    UnionCScientists, Germany are bearish.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Coal: Usa}
\protect\hypertarget{coal-usa}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Hated and obsolete.
\item
  But kept alive by:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Abundant availability and e-needs \emph{now}.
  \item
    Fossil fuel subsidies and lobbies.
  \item
    Large employment bases, pivotal voters.
  \item
    Still, fortunately, plants are aging out now,

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Unfortunately, just like clean nuclear plants.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  USA, 250 plants + 0 uc (construction)
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Coal: Think Global}
\protect\hypertarget{coal-think-global}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Coal is still hated and obsolete.
\item
  But growing countries need power \emph{now}.
\item
  Coal consumption and coal plants set new records in 2021!

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Long-term, coal faces likely stagnation, not immediate obsolescence.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Coal: Think Global}
\protect\hypertarget{coal-think-global-1}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  The World's Real Problem:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    China, 1000 + 200uc .
  \item
    India, 250 + 50uc .
  \item
    World, 2,000 + 500uc .
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Once built, sunk-cost equation changes:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    30-50-year lasting impact!!
  \item
    Any good ideas? Now is the time!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Dispatchable (Storage)}
\protect\hypertarget{dispatchable-storage}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  If demand is reasonably constant, choose

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    either basepower;
  \item
    or intermittent + storage;
  \item
    basepower + storage is not so great.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Simplified}
\protect\hypertarget{simplified}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Power connection infrastructure is expensive,
\item
  \emph{more so} for intermittent power.
\item
  Optimal solutions are often messy mixes.
\item
  One size ``no fit all.'\,'
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Clean Energy}
\protect\hypertarget{clean-energy}{}
In sum:

~

~~\textbf{\emph{Problem is No Longer Cheap Generation!}}

~

~~\textbf{\emph{Problem Now is Cheap Energy Storage!}}

~

Solve it, and wind/solar will take over.
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Lithium Batteries}
\protect\hypertarget{lithium-batteries}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Think \$200/MWh.
\item
  Li comes in small manufactured cells.
\item
  Cells are finicky and small.
\item
  Not easily scalable:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Expensive packaging into small cells.
  \item
    Twice the capacity is approx twice the cost.
  \item
    Lots of mundane improvements, but
  \item
    will likely always be finicky small-scale.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Current Big Lithium Problem}
\protect\hypertarget{current-big-lithium-problem}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Problem: Wear out after 1,000 cycles.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Anode and cathode expand and contract.
  \item
    But very soon 3,000 - 5,000 cycles!
  \item
    → Much cheaper for long-run use.
  \item
    → \emph{Very big} deal for utility-scale storage.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Could bring price down to \$100/MWh?
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    PS: No scientific reason why not 50,000 cycles, either.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Utility-Scale Lithium In Usa}
\protect\hypertarget{utility-scale-lithium-in-usa}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  2 GW power out of 450 GW total.
\item
  10 GWh energy out of 4,000,000.
\item
  Problem is capacity, not power.
\item
  Batteries rapidly expanding, but still tiny:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Many specialty uses (e.g.~6-10pm).
  \item
    Still too expensive for overnight,
  \item
    much less for multi-day storage.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Flow And Other Batteries}
\protect\hypertarget{flow-and-other-batteries}{}
World Need:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Giant house-sized tubs with person-sized electrodes that scale
  according to whim,
\item
  with quad storage → only double cost,
\item
  with cheap chemistries, \$50/MWh,
\item
  \textbf{\emph{and then it will be lights-out for most power plants
  other than wind and solar in 20-30 years!}}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
\href{https://formenergy.com/technology/battery-technology/}{Rust
Batteries?}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Utility-Scale \textbf{\emph{Flow}} Batteries}
\protect\hypertarget{utility-scale-flow-batteries}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Possible, even likely.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    But not here yet.
  \item
    Better to spend lots of \$\$\$s now on research and development than
    on deployment now.
  \item
    I am optimistic. (10 years?)
  \end{itemize}

  ~
\item
  But what if I am overoptimistic?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    This is \emph{not} a solved problem!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydro-Electric Power}
\protect\hypertarget{hydro-electric-power}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Think \$250/MWh.
\item
  Categories: Flow, Dammed, Pumped.
\item
  Limited Potential (but still 2x today's).
\item
  High capacity, lower efficiency than batteries:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Still cheaper for big energy needs.
  \item
    Here now and can supply 8-12 hours!
  \item
    Some even multi-day (Hoover).
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydro-Power Problem}
\protect\hypertarget{hydro-power-problem}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Few suitable locations.
\item
  Large scale only.
\item
  Extremely high upfront fixed cost.

  ~
\item
  What if battery power becomes cheaper more quickly than expected?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Unconventional Solutions}
\protect\hypertarget{unconventional-solutions}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Trains schlepping weights up a hill?!
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Not crazy at all:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Maybe \$100-\$200/MWh ?
  \item
    Perhaps not great long-run solutions,
  \item
    but not uncompetitive either (for now).
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Cranes Stacking Blocks}
\protect\hypertarget{cranes-stacking-blocks}{}
\includegraphics{crane.jpg}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Longer-Term Storage}
\protect\hypertarget{longer-term-storage}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Polar vortex-like wind/solar outages?!
\item
  Seasonal e-storage?
\item
  Long-term e-storage needs higher capacity at very low scaling cost,
  but lossier is ok.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Underground heat reservoirs?
  \item
    Underground compressed air reservoirs?
  \item
    Hydrogen?? (not as battery substitute!)
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Heat Use Of Stored Electricity?}
\protect\hypertarget{heat-use-of-stored-electricity}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Always a bad idea.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Ignore talking heads
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Never store electricity for heat.
\item
  Store heat in insulated containers.
\item
  Heat storage can work on any scale:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Houses, factories, or cities.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Energy Transmission Grid}
\protect\hypertarget{energy-transmission-grid}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Wind is always \emph{somewhere}. Yet:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Grid transmission lines are expensive.
  \item
    Transmission is lossy over long distance.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Significant variable cost (\$1-\$50/MWh).
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Transmission has other issues:

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Power line breaks,
    \item
      causing fires,
    \item
      or even cyber attacks.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Transmission}
\protect\hypertarget{transmission}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \emph{Very} complex engineering and political problems:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    It evolved naturally for local industrial needs.
  \item
    Total regulatory mess in USA now.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Needs to allow more intermittent energy:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Intermittent adds potential wires overload.
  \item
    → Sometimes prices turn negative!
  \item
    Even in California, often in Germany.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Key Clean Energy Problem Now}
\protect\hypertarget{key-clean-energy-problem-now}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Storage, Storage, Storage
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Secondarily, transmission grid
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
Feasibility/cost remain location-specific and complex.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Irony?}
\protect\hypertarget{irony}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Solar energy will cost \$15/MWh. \emph{Wow!}
\item
  If we could store and release for another \$15/MWh (heck,
  \$30-\$50/MWh),

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    we could built 200+ GWh of storage,
  \item
    plus electrify most fossil-fuel uses,
  \item
    and \textbf{\emph{it would be lights out for fossil fuels (for 2/3
    of uses)}}!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  But storage costs more like \$200/MWh.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Maybe \$100/MWh in 10 years with some luck.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Not Covered}
\protect\hypertarget{not-covered}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Reliability is hugely important.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    When electricity goes out, the world stops.
  \item
    All industry and jobs depend on it.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Inefficient to have too many decentralized backup generators
  everywhere.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Lebanon today.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Energy Provision 2015, Twh}
\protect\hypertarget{energy-provision-2015-twh}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrrrr@{}}
\toprule()
& Coal & NatGas & Nuke & Hydro \\
\midrule()
\endhead
USA & 1,410 & 1,317 & 797 & 249 \\
China & 3,860 & 148 & 161 & 1,103 \\
World & 9,621 & 5,585 & 2,440 & 3,843 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}

\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrrcr@{}}
\toprule()
& Wind & Solar & (Oth) & Total \\
\midrule()
\endhead
USA & 191 & 39 & (2.2\%) & 4,092 \\
China & 186 & 45 & (1.1\%) & 5,562 \\
World & 828 & 263 & (2.6\%) & 23,171 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Energy Forecast 2050, Twh}
\protect\hypertarget{energy-forecast-2050-twh}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrrrr@{}}
\toprule()
& Coal & NatGas & Nuke & Hydro \\
\midrule()
\endhead
USA & 593 & 1,953 & 594 & 294 \\
China & 3,556 & 803 & 1,002 & 1,448 \\
World & 8,115 & 7,306 & 3,025 & 5,548 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}

\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrrcr@{}}
\toprule()
& Wind & Solar & (Oth) & Total \\
\midrule()
\endhead
USA & 790 & 1,071 & (3.0\%) & 5,458 \\
China & 1,001 & 3,379 & (0.4\%) & 11,230 \\
World & 6,833 & 10,152 & (2.3\%) & 41,953 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Clean Energy Conclusion}
\protect\hypertarget{clean-energy-conclusion}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Generation is basically a solved problem.
\item
  Storage is the unsolved problem.
\item
  Wish nuclear plants were a lesser conundrum.
\item
  Natgas is economic challenge for c.e.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Wish we had a reasonable fossil-fuel tax!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Coal plants outside OECD remain vexing.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
