%%% the source is ~/.pandoc/templates/default.latex , included with -s ; includes /Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble.sty
%%% search for iaw for changes


% Options for packages loaded elsewhere
\PassOptionsToPackage{unicode}{hyperref}
\PassOptionsToPackage{hyphens}{url}
%
\documentclass[
  aspectratio=169,
%%% iaw
  14pt,
  ignorenonframetext,
]{beamer}
\usepackage{setspace}
\usepackage{pgfpages}
\setbeamertemplate{caption}[numbered]
\setbeamertemplate{caption label separator}{: }
\setbeamercolor{caption name}{fg=normal text.fg}
\beamertemplatenavigationsymbolsempty
% Prevent slide breaks in the middle of a paragraph
\widowpenalties 1 10000
\raggedbottom
\setbeamertemplate{part page}{
  \centering
  \begin{beamercolorbox}[sep=16pt,center]{part title}
    \usebeamerfont{part title}\insertpart\par
  \end{beamercolorbox}
}
\setbeamertemplate{section page}{
  \centering
  \begin{beamercolorbox}[sep=12pt,center]{part title}
    \usebeamerfont{section title}\insertsection\par
  \end{beamercolorbox}
}
\setbeamertemplate{subsection page}{
  \centering
  \begin{beamercolorbox}[sep=8pt,center]{part title}
    \usebeamerfont{subsection title}\insertsubsection\par
  \end{beamercolorbox}
}
\AtBeginPart{
  \frame{\partpage}
}
\AtBeginSection{
  \ifbibliography
  \else
    \frame{\sectionpage}
  \fi
}
\AtBeginSubsection{
  \frame{\subsectionpage}
}
\usepackage{lmodern}
\usepackage{amssymb,amsmath}
\usepackage{ifxetex,ifluatex}
\ifnum 0\ifxetex 1\fi\ifluatex 1\fi=0 % if pdftex
  \usepackage[T1]{fontenc}
  \usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
  \usepackage{textcomp} % provide euro and other symbols
\else % if luatex or xetex
%  \usepackage{unicode-math} %% iaw: warning:  will make itemize symbols way too fat
%  \defaultfontfeatures{Scale=MatchLowercase}
%  \defaultfontfeatures[\rmfamily]{Ligatures=TeX,Scale=1}

\fi
% Use upquote if available, for straight quotes in verbatim environments
\IfFileExists{upquote.sty}{\usepackage{upquote}}{}
\IfFileExists{microtype.sty}{% use microtype if available
  \usepackage[]{microtype}
  \UseMicrotypeSet[protrusion]{basicmath} % disable protrusion for tt fonts
}{}
\makeatletter
\@ifundefined{KOMAClassName}{% if non-KOMA class
  \IfFileExists{parskip.sty}{%
    \usepackage[skip=2pt,parfill=6pt]{parskip}
  }{% else
    \setlength{\parindent}{0pt}
    \setlength{\parskip}{6pt plus 2pt minus 1pt}}
}{% if KOMA class
  \KOMAoptions{parskip=half}}
\makeatother
\usepackage{xcolor}
\IfFileExists{xurl.sty}{\usepackage{xurl}}{} % add URL line breaks if available
\IfFileExists{bookmark.sty}{\usepackage{bookmark}}{\usepackage{hyperref}}
\hypersetup{
  pdftitle={Fossil Fuels \& Substitutes},
  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
  hidelinks,
  pdfcreator={LaTeX via pandoc}}
\urlstyle{same} % disable monospaced font for URLs
\newif\ifbibliography
\usepackage{graphicx,grffile}
\makeatletter
\def\maxwidth{\ifdim\Gin@nat@width>\linewidth\linewidth\else\Gin@nat@width\fi}
\def\maxheight{\ifdim\Gin@nat@height>\textheight\textheight\else\Gin@nat@height\fi}
\makeatother
% Scale images if necessary, so that they will not overflow the page
% margins by default, and it is still possible to overwrite the defaults
% using explicit options in \includegraphics[width, height, ...]{}
\setkeys{Gin}{width=\maxwidth,height=\maxheight,keepaspectratio}
% Set default figure placement to htbp
\makeatletter
\def\fps@figure{htbp}
\makeatother
\setlength{\emergencystretch}{3em} % prevent overfull lines
\providecommand{\tightlist}{%
  \smallskip\setlength{\itemsep}{1pt}\setlength{\parskip}{1pt}}
\setcounter{secnumdepth}{-\maxdimen} % remove section numbering

\title{Fossil Fuels \& Substitutes}
\subtitle{There is a whole ocean of oil under our feet! No one can get
at it except for me --- Daniel Plainview.}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}{Situation Today}
\protect\hypertarget{situation-today}{}
\includegraphics{fuels-1900.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Fossil Fuels}
\protect\hypertarget{fossil-fuels}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Here now and \emph{cheap}.
\item
  Existing infrastructure:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    gas and oil is cheap to ship,
  \item
    and easy to store.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Limited disaster potential:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    kills more steadily, not very saliently.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Fossil fuels make great heat engines,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    but poor electricity and kinetic engines.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Basic Alternative Fuels / Stores}
\protect\hypertarget{basic-alternative-fuels-stores}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Hydrogen
\item
  Batteries
\item
  Nuclear
\end{enumerate}

~ ~

\begin{quote}
More details in next chapters.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{1. Hydrogen}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogen}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Lighter but less dense (lower per m\(^3\))

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Best for airplanes and ships far off the grid.
  \item
    Will need new designs, but not terribly novel.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Flammable (better and worse than gasoline).
\item
  Similar but more corrosive than natgas.
\item
  \textbf{Storable like natgas}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen's Deadly Problem}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogens-deadly-problem}{}
~

\begin{block}{~~~~~\textbf{\emph{Cost!}}}
\protect\hypertarget{cost}{}
~
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Hydrogen's Deadly Problem}
\protect\hypertarget{hydrogens-deadly-problem-1}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \textbf{Clean} hydrogen costs about \textbf{10x} as much as natgas

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    could come down to \textbf{2x} in 30 years?!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Who wants to pay ``only'' twice as much?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Think competitive industries.
  \item
    Think Expedia airplane trips
  \item
    Think shipping containers.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Better catalysts? Cheaper electricity inputs?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{2. Nuclear Power}
\protect\hypertarget{nuclear-power}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Clean reliable power
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
except when plant blows up.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Nuclear Power Safety}
\protect\hypertarget{nuclear-power-safety}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Safest plants ever built, but \emph{not} safe enough.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    1 core melt-down per 4,000 reactor years.
  \item
    Unknown problems always creep up.
  \item
    Disasters can be terrible.
  \item
    Hard to control human agency problem:

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Make 100x profit using 5c screw as \$5 screw.
    \item
      Who will check later?
    \item
      Screw changes risk from 1/100m to 1/99.99m.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Nuclear Power Safety}
\protect\hypertarget{nuclear-power-safety-1}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  How safe is safe enough?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Even overall, could make twice the profit allowing 1-in-3,000 over
    1-in-4,000?
  \item
    What company and manager wouldn't want to outperform others and be
    promoted?
  \item
    Inspect (or
    \href{https://www.nbc29.com/2021/12/13/former-inspector-virginia-nuclear-plant-pleads-guilty-falsifying-inspection-reports/}{falsify}
    reports)?

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Much easier to conquer atom than humans!
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Watch HBO \href{https://www.hbo.com/chernobyl}{Chernobyl
    miniseries}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Safety Considerations}
\protect\hypertarget{safety-considerations}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Human Operations Error:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    we need nuclear plants where operator can no longer even
    intentionally blow up the plant,
  \item
    no matter how hard they try.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Better Than Fossil Fuels?}
\protect\hypertarget{better-than-fossil-fuels}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Fossil fuels kill hundreds of thousands

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    every year, but not with big bangs,
  \item
    and scary radioactivity.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Since 1960, nuclear has killed
  \href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_by_death_toll}{\(\approx\)
  100},

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    almost all in Chernobyl.
  \item
    Devastation in Fukujima is from Tsunami, not from nuclear plant core
    meltdown!
  \item
    Radiation is not as bad as public imagines it.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      It truly depends on dose.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Nuclear Power Regulation}
\protect\hypertarget{nuclear-power-regulation}{}
The Regulator's Problem:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Companies that want to go to 1 in 3,000,
\item
  and know more than the regulators.
\item
  What does a bureaucrat get for:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Type-I error?
  \item
    Type-II error?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
wanna become famous? only one way\ldots{}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Innovation And Improvement}
\protect\hypertarget{innovation-and-improvement}{}
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1975:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Need better regulation.
\item
  More regulation is not better regulation.
\item
  No new designs both completed and built
\item
  Some slightly better designs were finished.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Better safety features than older designs.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  About to change (Terapower Wyoming)
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  FOAK costs, experience, etc.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Nuclear \textbf{\emph{Fusion}} Plants}
\protect\hypertarget{nuclear-fusion-plants}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Completely different physics.
\item
  Power source of the sun, infinite supply.
\item
  \emph{Don't drink the Cool Aid}.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Ironically, \textbf{\emph{economically}} just like fission:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    very high fixed costs,
  \item
    very low marginal costs,
  \item
    near infinite supply of fuel.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Except

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    fusion plants cannot blow up, more like flame very difficult to
    sustain.
  \item
    less radioactivity at end of life (EOL)
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
No panacea, but good to research.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Eol Nuclear Waste Problem?}
\protect\hypertarget{eol-nuclear-waste-problem}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Spent Fuel-Rod Disposal

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    but could be reused 1,000x more in breeder reactors, which no one
    wants to license,
  \item
    and government has guaranteed disposal.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  PS: \textbf{Fossil Fuels have same problem},

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    but public does not seem to care as much;
  \item
    much stronger lobby for fossil fuels!
  \item
    Perfunctory: Feds collect nominal amounts.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Biggest Nuclear Problem}
\protect\hypertarget{biggest-nuclear-problem}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Huge Fixed Cost: Think \textbf{\emph{\$20b/plant}}.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    plus maybe cost overruns.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Think 10 years to build.
\item
  Could be obsolete at opening,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    while suffering new regs along the way,
  \item
    or be so unpopular as not to be licensed.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Who wants to gamble their retirement funds?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{3. Batteries}
\protect\hypertarget{batteries}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Very low energy density.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Think 5\% of fossil fuels.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Never useful for heat.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Make heat first and store heat!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Battery capacity on grid is tiny.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Think 10 minutes of storage.
  \item
    Even hydro storage is much more.
  \item
    Only useful for niche applications sofar.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Today's Lithium Batteries}
\protect\hypertarget{todays-lithium-batteries}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Best and dominant technology
\item
  Very lightweight (great for cars)
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Highly explosive when exposed to humidity.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
We will cover batteries in the next chapter.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Cool Aid: Green Tech}
\protect\hypertarget{cool-aid-green-tech}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Even technologies working in the lab usually fail to work in the real
  world.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Think 1 in 10 will ultimately make it.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Fortunately, civilization has 20 draws.
\item
  R\&D investment is large and risky,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    also because another stealth green company could solve problem even
    better.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Better to research, develop, or deploy now?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Cool Aid: Fossil Fuels}
\protect\hypertarget{cool-aid-fossil-fuels}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  FUD. Attack critics.
\item
  Huge lobbying engine and political power.
\item
  Fossil fuels have enjoyed huge subsidies.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Think half-truths and non-sense:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    mix liberally,
  \item
    repeat often.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie --- Slim.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
A lie ain't a side of a story. It's just a lie --- Gus.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Attack Vectors}
\protect\hypertarget{attack-vectors}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Blacken green alternatives
\item
  Point out unimaginably large numbers

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Of course it's big---including the problem.
  \item
    Ignorant public is easy target.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
(PS: also true for green proponents.)
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Space Requirements}
\protect\hypertarget{space-requirements}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Green Tech requires too much space:

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Size of Massachusetts!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Yes and no.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Space is not a constraint, except inside cities.
  \item
    Think instead \emph{size of land for agriculture}.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      need only \textless5\% thereof \emph{and} elsewhere.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Space Needs For Solar}
\protect\hypertarget{space-needs-for-solar}{}
\includegraphics{solararea.jpg}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Dig, Recycle, Etc.}
\protect\hypertarget{dig-recycle-etc.}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  WSJ OpEd: \emph{Get ready digging}.
\item
  Of course yes, but so do fossil fuels:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Real(istic) EOL consequences of fossil fuels have been terrible!
  \item
    So are the ongoing local health effects.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Worst comes to worst, landfill wind turbines.
\item
  \emph{But} critique is cosmically good

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    better designs with recycling in mind.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Tire Mountains, 1970s}
\protect\hypertarget{tire-mountains-1970s}{}
\includegraphics{tires.jpg}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Limited Clean Materials}
\protect\hypertarget{limited-clean-materials}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Cobalt, Lithium are in short supply.
\item
  \textbf{\emph{Yes and No}}.
\item
  Cosmic \textbf{\emph{Nonsense}}:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Just cheapest and best first solutions.
  \item
    Chemistries will be much better and cheaper in 30 years.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Unfair Government Subsidies}
\protect\hypertarget{unfair-government-subsidies}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Clean energy is indeed getting subsidies,
\item
  but not nearly as much as fossil fuels have gotten over the decades.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    (and this does not even consider the pollution externalities, which
    we should add in, because we have not charged them for it.)
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Conclusion}
\protect\hypertarget{conclusion}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Fossil fuels are not easy to replace,
\item
  but they are \emph{not} irreplaceable.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Technology alternatives to be explained next.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
