Goal

• Real reduction of CO~2~ in the atmosphere.

• Not wellness solutions to anxiety.

  • I encourage your and others’ wellness,

  • except when it distracts from what should be done,

  • and gives false illusion of progress;

  • and I am not the right person to teach this, anyway.

↠ CO~2~ Reduction Solutions

1. Must work many places around the world.

   • not all places are identical.

   • 6-7 bln Chinese, Indians, Africans, etc.

2. Must work over decades and generations.

3. Must not be too much against self-interest.

   • a modicum could be sustainable.

4. Must be able to sustain majority support.

Viable Solutions

Many small solutions but must aggregate. (I am not against others; it’s just not a planetary realistic approach.) 💊

1. Only Economics and Technology scale.

   • Fortunately, fossil fuels are expensive to obtain and move to destination.

2. Locally justifiable fossil-fuel taxes are viable..

   • Local health benefits are big. Real big!

3. Trees

Advice To Environmentalists

• Focus laser-sharp on viable solutions

  • … when temporarily in power.

• Don’t push solutions that are hugely divisive and can be undone every four years.

• Look for catalytic solutions.

  • Get over the big one-time hump.

  • Ideally low expense with accelerating self-dynamic.

War On Climate Change

• Haha — not true (see Ch 12).

• Tough to count up, but humanity’s spending on fighting CC is tiny.

  • Definitely collectively suboptimal.

  • World collectively should spend more.

    • Better: we should spend more.

  • COP demonstrators are right on this point.

Un Cop Demonstrators

• If you are one of them, stop kidding yourself and look around:

    YOU ARE OUT OF TOUCH

  You are just in your echo chamber.

• The world’s 8 bln barely care.

  • They really care about their own problems of the day.

  • They are not highly educated activists.

  • Heck, even in wealthy places. Let’s vote:

    1. free tuition, or

    2. –0.1°C in 30years.

💊

You Jackass professor

[Lomborg]…

• Compare CO~2~ campaign not to university education and malaria eradication.

• Compare to useless military expenses!

  • Yes, I wish this too,

  • but this is fantasyland — not a chance.

  • Especially lamentable in Africa.

 

Fight the Power then? The Man? Capitalism?

(1) Viable Local Taxes

• US Economists Statement

  • We agree, but

  • we are perhaps a little more worried about long-term escape. Over 30 years, companies and industries can move to other countries.

  • Also, only modest public support for proposal, because CO~2~ is not deadly and barely opposed.

Better: Local Fossil Fuel Taxes

CO~2~ may not be deadly, but fossil fuels are!

 

PM 2.5 particles:

• “Great”: visible, harmful, murder!

• Think 1 million deaths per year.

• Smog/health can mobilize population

  • clean air is a luxury good.

I worry about clean coal, which is what Manchin wants for Build Back Better.

Local Fossil Fuel (Coal) Taxes

• Realistic local externality: $\approx$ $50/tCO~2~.

  • Location-specific: $10 in AZ, $100 in NJ.

  • Winners and losers.

  • Difficult even within the same country,

  • but local pollution fighting has a chance.

Just start by removing darn $10-$20/tCO~2~ subsidies on fossil fuels!! Don’t worry about $100/tCO~2~ 10 years from now. Worry about NOW!

(2) Technological Change

• Dominant clean teach is within reach!

  • Market agrees: At times, Exxon < Nextera

• Solar/wind are cheapest energy ever!

  • Storage remains big problem. Soon.

• Technology is about two decades away.

  • Subsidize RDD to speed up.

  • Subsidize FOAK

Example: German windmills. Germans were not prime beneficiaries, though. Even German reduction was unimportant. Good example of example ;-).

Next Chapters

• You really need to understand what’s technologically feasible,

  • now, close future, distant future.

  • Save the world and get rich.

  • Like computers in 1980.

• What are the magnitudes? (Recall Ch-1, covered next.)

• Where are the (potential) bottlenecks?

Some More Big Problems

• Public is ignorant and easy to sway:

  • Outrage makes clicks.

  • Many journalists are ignorant or conflicted.

  • Even some scientists are too alarmed to remain fair and objective.

  • And foreign nations stoke fire with systematic misinformation campaigns.

 

It’s not as bad as it seems, but…

Existing Problem Is Big

Social Return On RDD Investment

• Irrelevant but interesting:

  • R.o.R has to work for entrepreneurs,

  • and it also happens to work for the world!

 

• $\approx$ $5-$10 for every $1 invested on RDD!

  • OECD+US can even go it mostly alone!

  • competitive aspects can push it further.

Our Messaging Recommendation

1. Clean energy technology is in \emph{your} own interest.

   • It will create well-paying jobs and prosperity, for \emph{you} and for \emph{your} children.

2. Reducing fossil fuel use is in \emph{your} own interest.

   • They are harming \emph{your} health \emph{today}.

Reduce antagonizing, shaming, divestment, international treaties, United Nations, China, global warming, etc. — all the things activists like. Get rich on the right activism!

Conclusion

• Pick battles (more) smartly.

• Lots of useful approaches, especially:

  1. Invest in clean technology, and

  2. advance local fossil-fuel (health) taxes.

• Today’s Situation:

  • Good approaches are already pursued, but not enough.

  • Dumb approaches are also pursued.

  • Please shift resources towards effective environmentalism.