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  pdftitle={Realistic Approaches},
  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
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\title{Realistic Approaches}
\subtitle{The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the
world he didn't exist --- Verbal Kint}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}
(This follows 07-unrealistic.)
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Goal}
\protect\hypertarget{goal}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Real reduction of CO\textsubscript{2} in the atmosphere.
\item
  Not wellness solutions to anxiety.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    I encourage your and others' wellness,
  \item
    except when it distracts from what should be done,
  \item
    and gives false illusion of progress.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{↠ Co\textsubscript{2} Reduction Solutions}
\protect\hypertarget{co2-reduction-solutions}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Must work around the world.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    not all places are identical.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Must work over decades and generations.
\item
  Must not be too much against self-interest.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    a little could be sustainable.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Must be able to sustain majority support.
\item
  Must work for 6-7 billion people in China, India, Africa, etc.
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Viable Solutions}
\protect\hypertarget{viable-solutions}{}
\begin{quote}
Many small solutions. The big deal is voluntary adoption with large
aggregation. (I am not against others; it's just not a planetary
realistic approach.) \pill
\end{quote}

\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Only \textbf{Economics} and \textbf{Technology} scale.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Fortunately, fossil fuels are expensive to obtain and move to
    destination.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Locally justifiable fossil-fuel taxes help.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Local health benefits are big. Real big!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Trees
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Advice To Environmentalists}
\protect\hypertarget{advice-to-environmentalists}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Focus laser-sharp on viable solutions

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    \ldots{} when temporarily in power.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Don't push solutions that are hugely divisive and can be undone every
  four years.
\item
  Look for \emph{catalytic solutions}.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Get over the big one-time hump.
  \item
    Ideally low expense with self-dynamic.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{War On Climate Change}
\protect\hypertarget{war-on-climate-change}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Haha --- not true (see Ch 12).
\item
  Tough to count up, but humanity's spending on fighting CC is tiny.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Definitely collectively suboptimal.
  \item
    World collectively should spend more.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Better: \emph{we} should spend more.
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    COP demonstrators are right on this point.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Un Cop Demonstrators}
\protect\hypertarget{un-cop-demonstrators}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  If you are one of them, stop kidding yourself and look around:

  \textbf{\emph{YOU ARE OUT OF TOUCH}}

  You are just in your echo chamber.
\item
  The world's 8 bln barely care.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    They really care about their own problem of the day.
  \item
    They are not highly educated activists.
  \item
    Heck, even in wealthy places. Let's vote:

    \begin{enumerate}
    \item
      \emph{free tuition}, or
    \item
      \emph{--0.1°C in 30years}.
    \end{enumerate}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{quote}
You Jackass professor {[}Lomborg{]}\ldots{}
\end{quote}

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Compare CO\textsubscript{2} campaign not to university education and
  malaria eradication.
\item
  Compare to useless military expenses!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Yes, I wish this too,
  \item
    but this is fantasyland --- not a chance.
  \item
    Especially lamentable in Africa.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
\textbf{\emph{Fight the Power}} then? The Man? Capitalism?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{(1) Local Co\textsubscript{2} Taxes}
\protect\hypertarget{local-co2-taxes}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economists\%27_Statement_on_Climate_Change}{US
  Economists Statement}

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    We agree, but
  \item
    we are a little more worried about escape.
  \item
    Over 30 years, companies and industries can move to other countries.
  \item
    Also, only modest public support for proposal. CO\textsubscript{2}
    is not deadly and barely opposed. Other pollution is.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Local \emph{Fossil Fuel} Taxes}
\protect\hypertarget{local-fossil-fuel-taxes}{}
CO\textsubscript{2} may not be deadly, but fossil fuels are!

~

PM 2.5 particles:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  ``Great'': visible, harmful, murder!
\item
  Think 1 million deaths per year.
\item
  Smog/health can mobilize population

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    clean air is a luxury good.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
I worry about \emph{clean coal}, which is what Manchin wants for
\emph{Build Back Better.}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Local \emph{Fossil Fuel} (Coal) Taxes}
\protect\hypertarget{local-fossil-fuel-coal-taxes}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Realistic local externality: \(\approx\) \$50/tCO\textsubscript{2}.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Location-specific: \$10 in AZ, \$100 in NJ.
  \item
    Winners and losers.
  \item
    Difficult even within the same country,
  \item
    but local pollution fighting has a chance.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Just start by removing darn \$10-\$20/tCO\textsubscript{2} subsidies on
fossil fuels!! Don't worry about \$100/tCO\textsubscript{2} 10 years
from now. Worry about \textbf{\emph{NOW!}}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{(2) Technological Change}
\protect\hypertarget{technological-change}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Dominant clean teach is within reach!

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Market agrees: Exxon \textless{} Nextera
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Solar/wind are cheapest energy \textbf{\emph{ever}}!

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Storage remains big problem (see Ch9).
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Tech is about two decades away.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Invest in RDD to speed up.
  \item
    Subsidize FOAK
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
German windmills. German firms were not prime beneficiary, though. Good
example of example ;-).
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Next Chapters}
\protect\hypertarget{next-chapters}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  You really need to understand what's technologically feasible,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Now and (\emph{perhaps}) in the future.
  \item
    Save the world and get rich.
  \item
    Like computers in 1980.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  What are the magnitudes? (Recall Ch.1.)
\item
  Where are the (potential) bottlenecks?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Some More Big Problems}
\protect\hypertarget{some-more-big-problems}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Public is ignorant and easy to sway:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Outrage makes clicks.
  \item
    Many journalists are ignorant or conflicted.
  \item
    Even some scientists are too alarmed to remain fair and objective.
  \item
    And foreign nations stoke fire with systematic misinformation
    campaigns.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
It's not as bad as it seems, but\ldots{}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Existing Problem Is Big}
\protect\hypertarget{existing-problem-is-big}{}
\includegraphics{fuels-1900.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Social Return On Rdd Investment}
\protect\hypertarget{social-return-on-rdd-investment}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Irrelevant but interesting:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    R.o.R has to work for entrepreneurs,
  \item
    and it also happens to work for the world!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  \(\approx\) \$5-\$10 for every \$1 invested!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    OECD+US can even go it mostly \textbf{alone!}
  \item
    competitive aspects can push it further.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Our Messaging Recommendation}
\protect\hypertarget{our-messaging-recommendation}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Clean energy technology is in \emph{your} own interest.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    It will create well-paying jobs and prosperity, for \emph{you} and
    for \emph{your} children.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Reducing fossil fuel use is in \emph{your} own interest.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    They are harming \emph{your} health \emph{today}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}

\begin{quote}
Reduce dwelling on antagonizing, shaming, divestment, international
treaties, United Nations, China, global warming, etc. --- all the things
activists like. Get rich on the right activism!
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Conclusion}
\protect\hypertarget{conclusion}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Pick battles (more) smartly.
\item
  Lots of useful approaches, especially:

  \begin{enumerate}
  \item
    Invest in clean technology, and
  \item
    advance local fossil-fuel (health) taxes.
  \end{enumerate}
\item
  Today's Situation:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Good approaches are already pursued, but not enough.
  \item
    Dumb approaches are also pursued.
  \item
    Please shift resources towards effective.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
