(This follows 07-unrealistic.)

Goal

• Real reduction of CO₂ in the atmosphere.

• Not wellness solutions to anxiety.

  • I encourage your and others’ wellness,

  • except when it distracts from what should be done,

  • and gives false illusion of progress.

↠ Co₂ Reduction Solutions

1. Must work around the world.

   • not all places are identical.

2. Must work over decades and generations.

3. Must not be too much against self-interest.

   • a little could be sustainable.

4. Must be able to sustain majority support.

5. Must work for 6-7 billion people in China, India, Africa, etc.

Viable Solutions

Many small solutions. The big deal is voluntary adoption with large aggregation. (I am not against others; it’s just not a planetary realistic approach.) 💊

1. Only Economics and Technology scale.

   • Fortunately, fossil fuels are expensive to obtain and move to destination.

2. Locally justifiable fossil-fuel taxes help.

   • Local health benefits are big. Real big!

3. Trees

Advice To Environmentalists

• Focus laser-sharp on viable solutions

  • … when temporarily in power.

• Don’t push solutions that are hugely divisive and can be undone every four years.

• Look for catalytic solutions.

  • Get over the big one-time hump.

  • Ideally low expense with self-dynamic.

War On Climate Change

• Haha — not true (see Ch 12).

• Tough to count up, but humanity’s spending on fighting CC is tiny.

  • Definitely collectively suboptimal.

  • World collectively should spend more.

    • Better: we should spend more.

  • COP demonstrators are right on this point.

Un Cop Demonstrators

• If you are one of them, stop kidding yourself and look around:

  YOU ARE OUT OF TOUCH

  You are just in your echo chamber.

• The world’s 8 bln barely care.

  • They really care about their own problem of the day.

  • They are not highly educated activists.

  • Heck, even in wealthy places. Let’s vote:

    1. free tuition, or

    2. –0.1°C in 30years.

💊

You Jackass professor [Lomborg]…

• Compare CO₂ campaign not to university education and malaria eradication.

• Compare to useless military expenses!

  • Yes, I wish this too,

  • but this is fantasyland — not a chance.

  • Especially lamentable in Africa.

Fight the Power then? The Man? Capitalism?

(1) Local Co₂ Taxes

• US Economists Statement

  • We agree, but

  • we are a little more worried about escape.

  • Over 30 years, companies and industries can move to other countries.

  • Also, only modest public support for proposal. CO₂ is not deadly and barely opposed. Other pollution is.

Local Fossil Fuel Taxes

CO₂ may not be deadly, but fossil fuels are!

PM 2.5 particles:

• “Great”: visible, harmful, murder!

• Think 1 million deaths per year.

• Smog/health can mobilize population

  • clean air is a luxury good.

I worry about clean coal, which is what Manchin wants for Build Back Better.

Local Fossil Fuel (Coal) Taxes

• Realistic local externality: ≈ $50/tCO₂.

  • Location-specific: $10 in AZ, $100 in NJ.

  • Winners and losers.

  • Difficult even within the same country,

  • but local pollution fighting has a chance.

Just start by removing darn $10-$20/tCO₂ subsidies on fossil fuels!! Don’t worry about $100/tCO₂ 10 years from now. Worry about NOW!

(2) Technological Change

• Dominant clean teach is within reach!

  • Market agrees: Exxon < Nextera

• Solar/wind are cheapest energy ever!

  • Storage remains big problem (see Ch9).

• Tech is about two decades away.

  • Invest in RDD to speed up.

  • Subsidize FOAK

German windmills. German firms were not prime beneficiary, though. Good example of example ;-).

Next Chapters

• You really need to understand what’s technologically feasible,

  • Now and (perhaps) in the future.

  • Save the world and get rich.

  • Like computers in 1980.

• What are the magnitudes? (Recall Ch.1.)

• Where are the (potential) bottlenecks?

Some More Big Problems

• Public is ignorant and easy to sway:

  • Outrage makes clicks.

  • Many journalists are ignorant or conflicted.

  • Even some scientists are too alarmed to remain fair and objective.

  • And foreign nations stoke fire with systematic misinformation campaigns.

It’s not as bad as it seems, but…

Existing Problem Is Big

Social Return On Rdd Investment

• Irrelevant but interesting:

  • R.o.R has to work for entrepreneurs,

  • and it also happens to work for the world!

• ≈ $5-$10 for every $1 invested!

  • OECD+US can even go it mostly alone!

  • competitive aspects can push it further.

Our Messaging Recommendation

1. Clean energy technology is in own interest.

   • It will create well-paying jobs and prosperity, for and for children.

2. Reducing fossil fuel use is in own interest.

   • They are harming health .

Reduce dwelling on antagonizing, shaming, divestment, international treaties, United Nations, China, global warming, etc. — all the things activists like. Get rich on the right activism!

Conclusion

• Pick battles (more) smartly.

• Lots of useful approaches, especially:

  1. Invest in clean technology, and

  2. advance local fossil-fuel (health) taxes.

• Today’s Situation:

  • Good approaches are already pursued, but not enough.

  • Dumb approaches are also pursued.

  • Please shift resources towards effective.