Goal
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Real reduction of CO~2~ in the atmosphere.
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Not wellness solutions to anxiety.
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I encourage your and others’ wellness,
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except when it distracts from what should be done,
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and gives false illusion of progress;
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and I am not the right person to teach this, anyway.
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↠ CO~2~ Reduction Solutions
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Must work many places around the world.
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not all places are identical.
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6-7 bln Chinese, Indians, Africans, etc.
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Must work over decades and generations.
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Must not be too much against self-interest.
- a modicum could be sustainable.
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Must be able to sustain majority support.
Viable Solutions
Many small solutions but must aggregate. (I am not against others; it’s just not a planetary realistic approach.) 💊
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Only Economics and Technology scale.
- Fortunately, fossil fuels are expensive to obtain and move to destination.
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Locally justifiable fossil-fuel taxes are viable..
- Local health benefits are big. Real big!
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Trees
Advice To Environmentalists
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Focus laser-sharp on viable solutions
- … when temporarily in power.
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Don’t push solutions that are hugely divisive and can be undone every four years.
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Look for catalytic solutions.
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Get over the big one-time hump.
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Ideally low expense with accelerating self-dynamic.
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War On Climate Change
- Haha — not true (see Ch 12).
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Tough to count up, but humanity’s spending on fighting CC is tiny.
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Definitely collectively suboptimal.
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World collectively should spend more.
- Better: we should spend more.
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COP demonstrators are right on this point.
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Un Cop Demonstrators
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If you are one of them, stop kidding yourself and look around:
YOU ARE OUT OF TOUCH
You are just in your echo chamber.
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The world’s 8 bln barely care.
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They really care about their own problems of the day.
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They are not highly educated activists.
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Heck, even in wealthy places. Let’s vote:
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free tuition, or
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–0.1°C in 30years.
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💊
You Jackass professor
[Lomborg]…
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Compare CO~2~ campaign not to university education and malaria eradication.
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Compare to useless military expenses!
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Yes, I wish this too,
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but this is fantasyland — not a chance.
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Especially lamentable in Africa.
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Fight the Power then? The Man? Capitalism?
(1) Viable Local Taxes
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We agree, but
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we are perhaps a little more worried about long-term escape. Over 30 years, companies and industries can move to other countries.
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Also, only modest public support for proposal, because CO~2~ is not deadly and barely opposed.
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Better: Local Fossil Fuel Taxes
CO~2~ may not be deadly, but fossil fuels are!
PM 2.5 particles:
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“Great”: visible, harmful, murder!
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Think 1 million deaths per year.
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Smog/health can mobilize population
- clean air is a luxury good.
I worry about clean coal, which is what Manchin wants for Build Back Better.
Local Fossil Fuel (Coal) Taxes
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Realistic local externality: $\approx$ $50/tCO~2~.
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Location-specific: $10 in AZ, $100 in NJ.
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Winners and losers.
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Difficult even within the same country,
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but local pollution fighting has a chance.
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Just start by removing darn $10-$20/tCO~2~ subsidies on fossil fuels!! Don’t worry about $100/tCO~2~ 10 years from now. Worry about NOW!
(2) Technological Change
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Dominant clean teach is within reach!
- Market agrees: At times, Exxon < Nextera
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Solar/wind are cheapest energy ever!
- Storage remains big problem. Soon.
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Technology is about two decades away.
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Subsidize RDD to speed up.
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Subsidize FOAK
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Example: German windmills. Germans were not prime beneficiaries, though. Even German reduction was unimportant. Good example of example ;-).
Next Chapters
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You really need to understand what’s technologically feasible,
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now, close future, distant future.
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Save the world and get rich.
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Like computers in 1980.
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What are the magnitudes? (Recall Ch-1, covered next.)
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Where are the (potential) bottlenecks?
Some More Big Problems
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Public is ignorant and easy to sway:
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Outrage makes clicks.
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Many journalists are ignorant or conflicted.
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Even some scientists are too alarmed to remain fair and objective.
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And foreign nations stoke fire with systematic misinformation campaigns.
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It’s not as bad as it seems, but…
Existing Problem Is Big
Social Return On RDD Investment
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Irrelevant but interesting:
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R.o.R has to work for entrepreneurs,
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and it also happens to work for the world!
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$\approx$ $5-$10 for every $1 invested on RDD!
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OECD+US can even go it mostly alone!
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competitive aspects can push it further.
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Our Messaging Recommendation
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Clean energy technology is in \emph{your} own interest.
- It will create well-paying jobs and prosperity, for \emph{you} and for \emph{your} children.
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Reducing fossil fuel use is in \emph{your} own interest.
- They are harming \emph{your} health \emph{today}.
Reduce antagonizing, shaming, divestment, international treaties, United Nations, China, global warming, etc. — all the things activists like. Get rich on the right activism!
Conclusion
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Pick battles (more) smartly.
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Lots of useful approaches, especially:
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Invest in clean technology, and
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advance local fossil-fuel (health) taxes.
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Today’s Situation:
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Good approaches are already pursued, but not enough.
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Dumb approaches are also pursued.
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Please shift resources towards effective environmentalism.
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