The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist — Verbal Kint
Ivo Welch
December 31, 2021
(This follows 07-unrealistic.)
Real reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Not wellness solutions to anxiety.
I encourage your and others’ wellness,
except when it distracts from what should be done,
and gives false illusion of progress.
Must work around the world.
Must work over decades and generations.
Must not be too much against self-interest.
Must be able to sustain majority support.
Must work for 6-7 billion people in China, India, Africa, etc.
Many small solutions. The big deal is voluntary adoption with large aggregation. (I am not against others; it’s just not a planetary realistic approach.) 💊
Only Economics and Technology scale.
Locally justifiable fossil-fuel taxes help.
Trees
Focus laser-sharp on viable solutions
Don’t push solutions that are hugely divisive and can be undone every four years.
Look for catalytic solutions.
Get over the big one-time hump.
Ideally low expense with self-dynamic.
Haha — not true (see Ch 12).
Tough to count up, but humanity’s spending on fighting CC is tiny.
Definitely collectively suboptimal.
World collectively should spend more.
COP demonstrators are right on this point.
If you are one of them, stop kidding yourself and look around:
YOU ARE OUT OF TOUCH
You are just in your echo chamber.
The world’s 8 bln barely care.
They really care about their own problem of the day.
They are not highly educated activists.
Heck, even in wealthy places. Let’s vote:
free tuition, or
–0.1°C in 30years.
💊
You Jackass professor [Lomborg]…
Compare CO2 campaign not to university education and malaria eradication.
Compare to useless military expenses!
Yes, I wish this too,
but this is fantasyland — not a chance.
Especially lamentable in Africa.
Fight the Power then? The Man? Capitalism?
We agree, but
we are a little more worried about escape.
Over 30 years, companies and industries can move to other countries.
Also, only modest public support for proposal. CO2 is not deadly and barely opposed. Other pollution is.
CO2 may not be deadly, but fossil fuels are!
PM 2.5 particles:
“Great”: visible, harmful, murder!
Think 1 million deaths per year.
Smog/health can mobilize population
I worry about clean coal, which is what Manchin wants for Build Back Better.
Realistic local externality: ≈ $50/tCO2.
Location-specific: $10 in AZ, $100 in NJ.
Winners and losers.
Difficult even within the same country,
but local pollution fighting has a chance.
Just start by removing darn $10-$20/tCO2 subsidies on fossil fuels!! Don’t worry about $100/tCO2 10 years from now. Worry about NOW!
Dominant clean teach is within reach!
Solar/wind are cheapest energy ever!
Tech is about two decades away.
Invest in RDD to speed up.
Subsidize FOAK
German windmills. German firms were not prime beneficiary, though. Good example of example ;-).
You really need to understand what’s technologically feasible,
Now and (perhaps) in the future.
Save the world and get rich.
Like computers in 1980.
What are the magnitudes? (Recall Ch.1.)
Where are the (potential) bottlenecks?
Public is ignorant and easy to sway:
Outrage makes clicks.
Many journalists are ignorant or conflicted.
Even some scientists are too alarmed to remain fair and objective.
And foreign nations stoke fire with systematic misinformation campaigns.
It’s not as bad as it seems, but…
Clean energy technology is in own interest.
Reducing fossil fuel use is in own interest.
Reduce dwelling on antagonizing, shaming, divestment, international treaties, United Nations, China, global warming, etc. — all the things activists like. Get rich on the right activism!
Pick battles (more) smartly.
Lots of useful approaches, especially:
Invest in clean technology, and
advance local fossil-fuel (health) taxes.
Today’s Situation:
Good approaches are already pursued, but not enough.
Dumb approaches are also pursued.
Please shift resources towards effective.
Social Return On Rdd Investment
Irrelevant but interesting:
R.o.R has to work for entrepreneurs,
and it also happens to work for the world!
≈ $5-$10 for every $1 invested!
OECD+US can even go it mostly alone!
competitive aspects can push it further.