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  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
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\title{Unrealistic Approaches}
\subtitle{What we've got here is a failure to communicate --- Captain.}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}{Start With Poll}
\protect\hypertarget{start-with-poll}{}
Review the poll from the first class.
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Best Estimates For World}
\protect\hypertarget{best-estimates-for-world}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  The world will be changing \textbf{greatly}!
\item
  It would (collectively) be better off with fewer GHG emissions.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    A good ``efficiency'\,' benchmark is \$50/tCO\textsubscript{2}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Trigger Warning}
\protect\hypertarget{trigger-warning}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  The welfare function is quite flat.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    If nothing is done, the world will be modestly worse off, but it
    will not come to an end.
  \item
    No models have more than 1-2\% damage estimates. Most are at
    0.2--0.5\% damage estimates.
  \item
    This is about one year of historical real growth
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
These are estimates from IAMS (IPCC etc.).
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
There are also other problems: poverty, habitat destruction,
overfishing, chemicals, comets, epidemics, etc.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Central Problem?}
\protect\hypertarget{central-problem}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\tightlist
\item
  Guilt and anxiety? or
\end{enumerate}

\begin{quote}
PS: Fritz Bauer, \emph{You} can only be proud or guilty for what
\emph{you} did. != Catholic Church, where you were born guilty.
\end{quote}

\begin{enumerate}
\setcounter{enumi}{1}
\item
  Warming

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    50 GtCO\textsubscript{2} per year,
  \item
    410 ppm CO\textsubscript{2} in the air?
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}

How do you want to solve it?

\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Feel better about \emph{yourself}? or
\item
  reduce CO\textsubscript{2} in the atmosphere?
\end{enumerate}

\begin{quote}
Different problems → different solutions.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Performative Wellness?!}
\protect\hypertarget{performative-wellness}{}
The following cannot work (unless they spread like Omikron):

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Advocate for a global CO\textsubscript{2} tax.
\item
  Work for international treaties.
\item
  \emph{Just Say No} to fossil fuels.
\item
  Lower your carbon-footprint.
\item
  Shame the polluters.
\item
  Most local sacrifice solutions.
\item
  Country-specific sacrifice solutions.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{\pill}
\protect\hypertarget{section}{}
When it comes to CO\textsubscript{2} in the atmosphere:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  The above are `wellness' solutions: unrealistic, ineffective, or both.
\item
  Their advocacy may make you feel better, but is probably
  counterproductive.
\end{itemize}

~

\textbf{\emph{To lower CO\textsubscript{2} in the atmosphere, we need
brutal honesty!}}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Clarification}
\protect\hypertarget{clarification}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Small is beautiful --- but can work only if they spread and aggregate
  up.
\item
  To plausibly reduce worldwide CO\textsubscript{2}, solutions will have
  to be in the self-interest of many parties.
\item
  What does \textbf{\emph{not}} work are solutions that are against the
  many's self-interests.
\item
  I only ever criticize the stupid parts:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    it is a good idea to bicycle.
  \item
    stupid if you think it can be an effective solution to reduce
    worldwide CO\textsubscript{2}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Clean Energy Transition?}
\protect\hypertarget{clean-energy-transition}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Easy? \textbf{\emph{No!}}
\item
  Must be super-big. (Biggest thing ever!)
\item
  Must span generations.
\item
  Must span most countries.
\item
  Climate change is slow motion:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Will only really show results in 30+ years.
  \item
    The public cares about problems of today.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Sin \#1: Think Too Big}
\protect\hypertarget{sin-1-think-too-big}{}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Global Co\textsubscript{2} Tax}
\protect\hypertarget{global-co2-tax}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Would you like a world government?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Benevolent ideal boffin politicians, or corruptible and real
    politicians?
  \item
    Democratic? Vote by person or by country?
  \item
    Modernist or medievalist?
  \item
    Is it enlightened?
  \item
    Dominated by which tribes?
  \item
    Dedicated to your kids or Africa's kids today?

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Poor people today or poor people in 100 years?
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Who Should Pay?}
\protect\hypertarget{who-should-pay}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Oil barons? (Haha!)
\item
  The ``donor class'' will escape:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Think Panama and Pandora.
  \item
    Not enough in donor class anyway.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Poor people?
\item
  They don't have enough anyway.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Who Would Have To Pay?}
\protect\hypertarget{who-would-have-to-pay}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Mostly \textbf{\emph{YOU}}:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    (Upper) middle class, educated in Western universities,
  \item
    struggling to afford car, health care, tuition, mortgage, and annual
    vacation.
  \item
    You 0.1 billion will have to pay for 8 billion!

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      useless to imagine proportional sharing.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Sketch Only

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Higher income pay a little more. Think rent.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{How Much?}
\protect\hypertarget{how-much}{}
Order of Magnitude:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Say 40 GtCO\textsubscript{2}
\item
  Say \$50/tCO\textsubscript{2}. (up to \$200?)
\item
  Think \$2 trillion.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    10\% of US GDP, 5\% of OECD GDP,
  \item
    but could be more.
  \item
    Think \$20,000 per year if \$0.1 bln.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{How Much?}
\protect\hypertarget{how-much-1}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Fighting CC now `the traditional way':
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
we will talk about cheaper better ways later.
\end{quote}

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Pull out your checkbox and write \$5,000-\$10,000 check for this year.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    If not you --- self-selected wealthy students interested in climate
    --- who will?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{How Much Willingness?}
\protect\hypertarget{how-much-willingness}{}
Young Germans (14-29yo):

\begin{itemize}
\item
  CC is biggest threat and anxiety, but
\item
  80\% not willing to give up car, and
\item
  70\% not willing to give up flying.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Wow! What exactly are they willing to give up?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{How Much Willingness?}
\protect\hypertarget{how-much-willingness-1}{}
Americans:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Majority now believe climate change is real\ldots better late than
  never.
\item
  Avg willing to pay?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    \$10-\$200 per year!
  \item
    We need min \$2,000-\$5,000
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Will they give up cars and flying?
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
What exactly are Americans willing to give up?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{How Much Willingness?}
\protect\hypertarget{how-much-willingness-2}{}
China, India, Africa:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Will they be willing to forego enjoying cars, travel, health care,
  education, easier jobs?
\item
  Better jobs require energy,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    typically lots of it.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{World Tax On Co\textsubscript{2}}
\protect\hypertarget{world-tax-on-co2}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  IAM: \$50-\$80/tCO\textsubscript{2}.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Proportional US: 15 x \$50 = \$750 / year.
  \item
    must be way-above-proportional!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Average willing: \$100/year.
\item
  They won't pay \textgreater\$5,000 / year.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    \ldots whether you like it or not \pill.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
but it's irrelevant.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{News Flash:}
\protect\hypertarget{news-flash}{}
~

\textbf{\emph{There is no world government.}}

~

\begin{quote}
Rescued by the bell?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Treaties As Substitute?}
\protect\hypertarget{treaties-as-substitute}{}
\begin{quote}
Not everyone is as pessimistic as I am, but hear me out.
\end{quote}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Countries exist!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Check!
  \item
    Yeah!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Realistically, selfish, just like us.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Treaties Vs. Treaties}
\protect\hypertarget{treaties-vs.-treaties}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  NATO, EU, Arms Reduction can exclude non-signers from benefits.
\item
  CO\textsubscript{2} treaty could not exclude non-signers from enjoying
  reduced global warming.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Multilateral Coordination}
\protect\hypertarget{multilateral-coordination}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  How do you deal with 200 countries?
\item
  Non-signers are always better off.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Large cartels, conspiracies, and secrets can never work because
    defectors are better off.
  \item
    Only morons believe in large cabals.
  \item
    Pretend to be late or uninterested.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Countries have
  \href{https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=12377\&context=journal_articles}{unequal
  cost and harm}.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Tougher to sort out \emph{fair} share.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Politics By Popular Demand}
\protect\hypertarget{politics-by-popular-demand}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Environmentalist lip-service gets votes.
\item
  Environmentalist actions do not.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    So just don't do/enforce much.
  \item
    Leave sacrifice beyond your term.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  50 year commitment needed, not 5 year.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    20 year sacrifice upfront before first teeny-tiny reduction benefit,
  \item
    and it will still be bad.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  All politics is domestic.
\item
  Do you want to be reelected?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    go have courage, lose election!
  \item
    Unshamed candidates promise higher living standards or mailing
    checks.
  \item
    Foreign citizens do not vote.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Politics are domestic. What emissions are?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Pay to suck out China's emissions?
  \item
    What if it is dirt cheap (\$5/tCO\textsubscript{2})?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Mixing-In Of Demands}
\protect\hypertarget{mixing-in-of-demands}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  CC is easy hostage for other disputes.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Give up on human rights and IP theft?
  \item
    Agree to send lots of money?

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Fair or unfair is irrelevant.
    \item
      Sending large amounts is unsupportable among OECD voters.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Enforcing Treaties}
\protect\hypertarget{enforcing-treaties}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Who would be the enforcement police?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Invite United Nations as enforcer?
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Would Americans accept int'l supervision?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Countries would rather dissolve than submit.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  And how about China and India?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Enforcement In Past Treaties}
\protect\hypertarget{enforcement-in-past-treaties}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  No penalties ever,
\item
  because targets were never mandatory!
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  No enforcement, no teeth.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Past Treaty Promises}
\protect\hypertarget{past-treaty-promises}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Book lists some empty country promises.
\item
  Many are laughable if one reads the fineprint, like:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    The US reducing emissions the most.
  \item
    Most promises are decades into the future
  \item
    Relative to \emph{what they would be otherwise}.
  \item
    No one will remember these promises.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      = teach horse to talk
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Carbon Shaming?}
\protect\hypertarget{carbon-shaming}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Russia?
\item
  China?
\item
  India?
\item
  Nigeria?
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Where were Russia and China in Glasgow?
\item
  Why did India come?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Popular X-Country Demand}
\protect\hypertarget{popular-x-country-demand}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Who wants to clean up China's emissions?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Yes, we can suck it out of the air,
  \item
    not only \emph{hypothetically}, but also \emph{realistically}!
  \item
    (On the margin, via trees, as low as \$10/tCO\textsubscript{2}!)
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Raise your hand to tax yourself just \$1,000 to suck out China's
emissions.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{What A Treaty Would Require}
\protect\hypertarget{what-a-treaty-would-require}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Think `only' 10\% of your income,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    assuming that primarily OECD will pay,
  \item
    which is really the only halfway realistic path.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  \$5,000:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    free higher-ed for everyone?
  \item
    or 0.1C less in 50 years?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Past Real-World Cc Agreements}
\protect\hypertarget{past-real-world-cc-agreements}{}
Am I too harsh? Take a hard look:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Most were ``aspirational'' only.
\item
  Fake promises, ingenuine, unenforcible.
\item
  Nothing ever has been binding.
\item
  China and Russia have left the room.
\item
  India and others want trillions of dollars:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Think \$2,000 from you.
  \item
    Hope Congolese warlords will spend it right!?
  \end{itemize}
\item
  and this was in good times!
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{What If Lights Go Out?}
\protect\hypertarget{what-if-lights-go-out}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Sudden wider hysteria in 2021.
\item
  All CO\textsubscript{2} reduction promises went out of the window when
  the lights might go out.
\item
  Even --- yes --- Norwegians want consumer energy subsidies when price
  goes up.
\item
  Coal hit records in 2021.
\item
  Oil reached long-time high.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
PS: No energy → no jobs.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Montreal Treaty On Ozone}
\protect\hypertarget{montreal-treaty-on-ozone}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Greatest success, but \ldots{}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{In-Time Montreal Estimates}
\protect\hypertarget{in-time-montreal-estimates}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrr@{}}
\toprule()
Party & Benefits & Costs \\
\midrule()
\endhead
US only (unilateral) & \$1,373 & \$21 \\
US only (multiilateral) & \$3,575 & \$21 \\
World & e2,220 & e200 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Montreal}
\protect\hypertarget{montreal}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  If it only were so for GHGs\ldots{}
\item
  \href{https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=12377\&context=journal_articles}{Sunstein}
  describes further problems.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    compares Kyoto to Montreal
  \item
    similarly shared pain and gain.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
PS: Is Bangladesh's real problem not CC in 80 years or poverty today?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Caveat}
\protect\hypertarget{caveat}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  I have a very pessimistic view of international negotiations.
\item
  Some smart people do not share my view.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Even More Radical Change?}
\protect\hypertarget{even-more-radical-change}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Replace capitalism with more government?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Fails majority support.
  \item
    You would \emph{not} want this even if you could decree it.
  \item
    More than one problem on this earth.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      Capitalism is not fair or ethical or moral.
    \item
      Yet, versions have provided the best long-term outcome for the
      most people.
    \item
      Dilemma.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{quote}
Arguments for free-market capitalism (FMC) or for meritocracy (with
unequal starting points) should \emph{never} be about fairness. They are
not fair, rich people's whining not withstanding. I wish I had Obama's
talents, Bezos' wealth, and Vanderbilts' inheritance. We like FMC only
for its long-term outcomes. (PS: All of us here are far on the sunny
side, though.)
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
The problem of FMC in the CC context is its suitability. CC is the
mother of all public goods problems. But FMC is dynamic and can be
nudged towards the better. We also still need FMC to help solve other
problems.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{More Government Then?}
\protect\hypertarget{more-government-then}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Would you like more government?
\item
  What about even/just in the US?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Progressives:

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      think not Obama \& Biden, but Bush \& Trump.
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Conservatives: think reverse.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      think not Trump \& Bush, but Biden \& Obama.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Do we have enough government already? \pill
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{quote}
Who wants to be a politician?
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
What would be my chances of surviving a primary in the USA, either
party?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Solo Corporate Initiatives}
\protect\hypertarget{solo-corporate-initiatives}{}
Should/can corporations take over this principal function of
governments?

~

\begin{quote}
Discussion is \emph{not} about profit-maximizing parts. Making cleaner
products when customers are demanding them is profit-maximizing and
wonderful. Saving energy in production is great. Etc.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
Discussion is about trying to coax corporations to shoot themselves in
the foot on behalf of green causes.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
As activist, try to define precisely:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  What do you want to accomplish?
\item
  How can you measure it?
\item
  What will happen upon non-compliance?
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Corporate reach is \emph{rarely if ever} wide enough. Even biggest
companies are too local and small, much smaller than big countries.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Customer Demand}
\protect\hypertarget{customer-demand}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Some customers are willing to pay more.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Good, but doesn't scale very effectively.
  \item
    and may not be long-term sustainable.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
(nice when it does.)
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\includegraphics{zara-dresses.jpg}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Long-Term Viability}
\protect\hypertarget{long-term-viability}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Like politics, corporate CC actions are often public relations
  (wellness).

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    great when it sells more product.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Corporate climate activism is only real and sustainable when

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    corporate profits go up,
  \item
    and executives earn more.
  \item
    They can go up due to stakeholders,
  \item
    but for how much and for how long?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Public Relations?}
\protect\hypertarget{public-relations}{}
\includegraphics{corporate-clowns.jpg}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Competitive Market Survival?:}
\protect\hypertarget{competitive-market-survival}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Click on Expedia for ticket price?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    how many travelers will pay 30\% extra?

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      PS: why via link to flight then? Always pay!
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    What if competitors sell cheaper products?
  \item
    Try competing as an airline on more expensive green fuel\ldots good
    luck. RIP.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Try to compete against half-truths?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    `Race to the bottom'.
  \item
    Who would ever buy fenced goods?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Broader Industry Initiatives}
\protect\hypertarget{broader-industry-initiatives}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Pays for lots of consultants and PR

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    How exactly does one measure corporate CO\textsubscript{2}
    footprint???
  \item
    Often seems empty and pretentious.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Shareholder Activism}
\protect\hypertarget{shareholder-activism}{}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Esg Ratings}
\protect\hypertarget{esg-ratings}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Most customers don't know what it means,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    even MSCI environmental ratings.
  \item
    Do you know what they mean?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Divestment And Boycotts}
\protect\hypertarget{divestment-and-boycotts}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Popular among students in universities.
\item
  Evidence suggests never effective,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    not even coordinated international legally sanctioned boycotts and
    embargos!
  \item
    though not costly, either. unimportant.
  \item
    PS: could never work without China.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Key Effectiveness Problem:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    See conspiracies and cabals.
  \item
    When boycott works, profits of evasion go up.
  \item
    Napoleon's original problem.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Puzzled}
\protect\hypertarget{puzzled}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  I am still confused. Please explain.
\item
  Let's assume, all evidence to the contrary, that divestment could
  succeed and leaders can force oil companies to their knees.
\item
  Now what?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    What targeted reduction?
  \item
    What specific goals?
  \item
    How to measure of progress?
  \item
    First, second, third outcomes?
  \item
    (Chances of success?)
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Or just anxiety, moral stand, etc?
\item
  `\emph{Gotta do something}'?!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Illogical, unrealistic, ineffective.
  \item
    (Ivory-tower boffins in the making?)
  \end{itemize}
\item
  ``Belong'' to group with greater cause?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Without much thinking?
    \href{https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMQkV5cTuoY}{Yikes!}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Divestment Goal?}
\protect\hypertarget{divestment-goal}{}
Just harm oil companies?

\begin{itemize}
\item
  They don't even raise capital any longer.
\item
  Get them to stop providing fossil fuels?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Now, on behalf of humanity???
  \item
    \emph{Great Recession} and \emph{Covid} would be pinpricks.
  \item
    Think \emph{Industrial Revolution} misery for masses and
    generations.
  \item
    Vote shares instead?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Great Irony}
\protect\hypertarget{great-irony}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Research universities' competitive advantage:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    (Clean-Energy) Research!
  \item
    → Endow chairs for clean-energy research.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Charge more tuition to invest?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    But hard to coax students into engineering.
  \item
    Engineering is notoriously `unprogressive'.
  \item
    UC voted for diversity initiatives, not energy research initiatives.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      not an attempt at comparative value statement, but simple reality
      description.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Sin \#2: Think Too Small}
\protect\hypertarget{sin-2-think-too-small}{}
~

\begin{quote}
Is spending your environmentalist fervour on your carbon footprint most
effective?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{\textbf{\emph{Personal Carbon Footprints}}}
\protect\hypertarget{personal-carbon-footprints}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Could it happen/work at large scale?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Great if/when it does. Celebrate!
  \item
    (Actions that scale are different. See below.)
  \item
    \pill
  \end{itemize}
\item
  If it happened nevertheless, will it be \emph{because} of you?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    On the margin analysis.
  \item
    Don't ever say ``if everyone did it''; explain \emph{how} everyone
    will come to do it.
  \item
    \pill
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}

\begin{quote}
Spend \emph{your} environmentalist fervour more effectively?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Setting An Example}
\protect\hypertarget{setting-an-example}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Realistically, if you set an example, who will care and follow?
\item
  Fallacy: \emph{if everyone does it}

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    your doing it won't make everyone doing it;
  \item
    they will or will not do it anyway,
  \item
    \ldots whether you like it or not.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Exactly when and why will everyone do it?
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Setting An Example}
\protect\hypertarget{setting-an-example-1}{}
Is `setting an example'

\begin{itemize}
\item
  performative wellness, or
\item
  a realistic solution to 50 GtCO\textsubscript{2}/year,
\item
  and 410 ppm in the atmosphere?
\end{itemize}

~

\pill

\begin{quote}
Let's think about it\ldots{}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Reduce World's Footprint}
\protect\hypertarget{reduce-worlds-footprint}{}
To improve billions of footprints, what's more important for people to
do:

\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Use paper straws and don't fly to Europe?
\item
  Pray that humanity changes?
\end{enumerate}

\begin{quote}
What aggregates better?
\end{quote}

~

For billions of footprints, the expected effect of \#2 may be larger.
Maybe equal.

\begin{quote}
(Expected = probability of succcess * effect)
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Personal Carbon Footprint}
\protect\hypertarget{personal-carbon-footprint}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Most advice is nice and healthy:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Follow it if you will.
  \item
    Pad yourself on the back.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  But don't expect CO\textsubscript{2} level to change:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Ineffective\ldots unless x billion people do.
  \item
    Never \textbf{\emph{because}} you are doing it.
  \item
    What you do or not does not matter.
  \item
    \emph{Your} footprint is \emph{utterly} unimportant.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Personal Carbon Footprints}
\protect\hypertarget{personal-carbon-footprints-1}{}
\begin{quote}
What a Jackass professor!
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
From jackass: Do you think more people just don't know, so if you tell
them it will change?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Footprint Primary,
\href{Https://Www.Withouthotair.Com/}{Mackay 2008}}
\protect\hypertarget{footprint-primary-mackay-2008}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Stop flying!
\item
  Stop driving!
\item
  Reduce heating and cooling!

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Wear sweaters.
  \item
    Make sweat sexy again (MSSA)!
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}

~

\begin{quote}
Promise? Raise your hand! \emph{The world is at risk!}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Footprint Secondary}
\protect\hypertarget{footprint-secondary}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Read electricity meters.
\item
  Don't upgrade your cell phone.
\item
  Use LED lights.
\item
  Buy less, reuse packaging.
\item
  Eat Vegetarian.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Promise? Raise your hand! \emph{The world is at risk!}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Course Attendees}
\protect\hypertarget{course-attendees}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  You are highly selected:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Highly educated university students.
  \item
    Fairly wealthy (OECD).
  \item
    Self-selected by interest, enrolled in this course.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Honestly, do even \emph{you} follow them?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Did you not know about them?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Realistic Timeline}
\protect\hypertarget{realistic-timeline}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  When will x billion other humans follow footprint initiatives
  \emph{religiously}?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    When will this change CO\textsubscript{2} in the atmosphere?
  \end{itemize}
\item
  How much could your engagement realistically speed up adoptions?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    and how?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Estimate Please}
\protect\hypertarget{estimate-please}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  How much could/have carbon footprint initatives reduced worldwide
  CO\textsubscript{2} emissions?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    I allow you to make optimistic assumptions.
  \item
    What percentage of world problem?
  \item
    Multiply number of people and per-person savings to obtain
    `tCO\textsubscript{2} likely reduced'.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{If Everyone Did It}
\protect\hypertarget{if-everyone-did-it}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  But they haven't and won't.
\item
  And, yes, it would be great.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    I would celebrate, too.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  But what would that have to do with your own marginal cost-benefit
  analysis?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{\href{Https://Www.Newyorker.Com/Humor/Daily-Shouts/What-I-Will-Give-Up-Because-Of-Climate-Change}{New
Yorker}: No More \ldots{}}
\protect\hypertarget{new-yorker-no-more}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Cooking Meat\ldots takeout only.
\item
  Flying\ldots for family vacations.
\item
  Food Waste\ldots eat it.
\item
  Shopping Bags. (Bubble wrap != plastic.)
\item
  Straws\ldots when others are watching.
\item
  Toilet flushing\ldots hate visitors.
\item
  No mo carbs\ldots no food waste, either.
\item
  Gasoline car\ldots drive Tesla.
\end{enumerate}

(more funny choices)
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Mix-In Social Ills}
\protect\hypertarget{mix-in-social-ills}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Add in social justice
\item
  Add in who is to blame

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    not easy: population \emph{and} emissions
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Add in inequality and EDI
\item
  Add in poverty
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Allocate a lot of money, then let the causes fight it out, and see how
much climate change (on behalf of great-great-grand\ldots) will be
getting?!
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Free-For-All}
\protect\hypertarget{free-for-all}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  The cage fights have begun on the \$1 trillion \emph{Build Back
  Better} bill of 2021.
\item
  Out of direct view, by power groups

  \href{Who\%20gets\%20$1\%20trillion\%20infrastructure\%20funds?}{https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/climate/climate-change-infrastructure-bill.html}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
How effective will CC fighting be?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Conclusion}
\protect\hypertarget{conclusion}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  None of the above approaches will likely move the needle on
  CO\textsubscript{2}:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Probably not even on the margin.
  \item
    They are mostly `personal wellness' only.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  If \textbf{\emph{you}} truly want to contribute to moving the needle
  on CO\textsubscript{2}, then
\end{itemize}

~~~~~~~~~\textbf{\emph{You Must Do Better!}}

~~~~~~~~~\textbf{\emph{You Must Be More Effective!}}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
