Facts

• OECD : 3x energy/person, 2x emissions/person
• OECD : 18% of world population
• Global Temp rising : World will change greatly.
• Externalities : Tax them! (50/tCO 2?)

Wrong Question

• What should the world do?

• What should be the SCC?

• What should be the tax?

Right Question

• What will decision-makers do?

• How can they be influenced?

• What will be the outcome?

Humanity

• We are not the Borg!

• Tunnel Vision is futile

Can We Go It Alone?

• 250 GtCO₂ reduces temp by 0.1°C.

• Climate change 3.0°C instead of 2.9°C.

  • 50 years of no USA.

  • 100 years of half-USA.

• Neither has a chance of happening based on economic hardship.

Eu And Us And Oecd?

• Only 1/3 of emissions in 2022.

• Only 1/4 in a generation in 2050

• US/EU shrinking. Others growing.

  • Galling?

Pay For Non-Oecd?

• Way too much $s to receive political approval.

• Unanimous vote in U.S. Senate against us cleaning up our own shit if others do not.

• Would they vote to pay for others??

Platitudes

• When you think you can successfully appeal to global human altruism.

• When you state “The World should …”

  WTH? This is not how it works.

• When you propose climate-change related “wellness” initiatives

Appeals don’t work. The US cannot even through appeals get its own citizens to take the safest vaccine in human history. There are things we can do, though—wait until later in the course.

Fun With Wellness

• When you propose climate-change related “wellness” initiatives, like carbon footprint reductions.

(Think Goop. And the following are the more PG-rated products.)

You Educated Folks…

Let’s talk magnitudes.

• Biden signed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill in November 2021.

• What does this really mean?

  • Would $2 trillion have been better?

  • Democrats want(ed) $3+ trillion.

• How many voters understand the difference between $1 billion and $1 trillion?

  • And how many voters just follow partisan lines?

Infrastructure can be a great investment. However, it depends on the type and spending. Think $5m for 1 lane per mile. With 50 houses per mile, think $100,000 per house construction or asphalt highway. With 4-lanes, you can build full houses or just lanes for the same cost.

Does AOC understand before she votes? Does Tucker Carlson before he shoots his mouth off? I do not know.

Someone will have to pay for spending plans…think mostly you.

Think in terms of mortgage — how fast is your income still growing? If your income is growing fast, then your mortgage today can be bigger and it will over time diminish in importance. If your income is no longer growing but shrinking, your budget (i.e. the US budget) will hit a wall — unless you can bring in more money. This means primarily your taxes — upper middle income.

Estimated Cost Of War On Terror

• $8 trillion and about 1 million dead?

• That’s about $65,000 per US household.

  • (Not an annual but a total expense, though.)

• Avg US HH worked about 1 in 20 years for WoT.

  • could not have paid taxes for two years!

War on Terror is not a substitute for War on CC. US won’t spend less on military. Eisenhower warned us. But “The US should…” is not how it works, either. Spending has a different dynamic.

Problem Of Magnitudes

• Climate change is principally a problem of incomprehensibly gigantic magnitudes.

  • I will try to make the numbers more comprehensible.

Sidenote

• Solutions to reduce CO₂ in the atmosphere need to be like chain letters with a self-dynamic to reach not just USA but the greater world!

• The world will have to want to copy.

• Any other “solutions” won’t work.

  • OECD does not control world emissions.

  • Goop and you do not, either.

Conclusion

• Nations are selfish. Small sacrifices perhaps. Some countries perhaps.

• There are no world solutions without the non-OECD countries.

• Need voluntary adoptions.