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  pdftitle={Linking Emissions},
  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
  hidelinks,
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\title{Linking Emissions}
\subtitle{KAYA}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}{Review: Emissions / Energy Consumption}
\protect\hypertarget{review-emissions-energy-consumption}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  world energy use is growing,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    greatly population and wealth related, and
  \item
    no longer primarily an oecd issue.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      oecd is already distinctly \textless{} 50\%,
    \item
      and stable or declining.
    \item
      soon, oecd will be 25\%.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  growth now mostly among 7-9 billion people in mid- and low-income
  countries.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Energy To Emissions}
\protect\hypertarget{energy-to-emissions}{}
\includegraphics{pe-vs-co.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Energy To Emissions Relationship}
\protect\hypertarget{energy-to-emissions-relationship}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Basically one-to-one correspondence.
\item
  Think Chapter 1 and you won't be far off.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Non-energy emissions also correlate with energy use.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The Power Of Activism}
\protect\hypertarget{the-power-of-activism}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Has activism made much difference?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Has it broken the link between energy and emissions? Slowed
    emissions?
  \item
    You tell me!
  \item
    Causation causes correlation, not vice-versa.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
Lying with statistics: The rooster did not raise the sun. Yes, climate
activism mattered: energy 1960s growth rate \textgreater{} 2000s. Both
slowed in the mid-1970s already.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Global Climate Change (GCC)}
\protect\hypertarget{global-climate-change-gcc}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Just one consequence (\emph{climate change}),
\item
  of just one consequence (\emph{emissions}),
\item
  of mostly one consequence (75\% \emph{energy}),

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    75\% of GHGs are from energy provision.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  of humanity's huge \emph{population}.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Emissions are \(\approx\) 1-to-1 with energy
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Climate change is not intentional. It's a ``unintended side effect.''
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Exactly how do \textbf{\emph{you}} plan to address these problems?
\item
  Four possible jammers:
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Population
\item
  Energy use
\item
  Emissions
\item
  Climate Change
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Total Primary Energy Use}
\protect\hypertarget{total-primary-energy-use}{}
\includegraphics{primary-use-nonoecd.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Total Primary Energy Use}
\protect\hypertarget{total-primary-energy-use-1}{}
\includegraphics{primary-use-oecd.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Warning}
\protect\hypertarget{warning}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  This is \emph{not} the fault of non-OECD countries.
\item
  Fault is futile and irrelevant.
\item
  It's not about guilt or innocence.
\item
  It's about reality.
\item
  It's about what it takes to reduce power (and emissions).
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{2050e (B, Kwh, Pwh)}
\protect\hypertarget{e-b-kwh-pwh}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lrrr@{}}
\toprule()
Area & Pop & pCpD & Total \\
\midrule()
\endhead
\textbf{OECD} & 1.5 & 150 & 80 \\
USA & 0.4 & 220 & 32 \\
\textbf{Non-OECD} & 8.2 & 60 & 180 \\
China & 1.4 & 110 & 60 \\
India & 1.6 & 60 & 35 \\
\textbf{World} & 9.7 & 75 & 260 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Per Capita}
\protect\hypertarget{per-capita}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Rough consumption of Energy:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    1 Part driving (13 MWh/year)
  \item
    1 Part flying (10 MWh/year from LA to Europe)
  \item
    1 Part heating and cooling
  \item
    1 Part everything else
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
What will the average American happily give up?
\end{quote}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  PS: Today, only 1/3 is electricity. Soon: 2/3.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Solutions Must Scale}
\protect\hypertarget{solutions-must-scale}{}
\href{https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLxPAwIeL0w}{Watch this Youtube:
Tesla as a solution to our energy!}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Per Person Per Day (Pppd)}
\protect\hypertarget{per-person-per-day-pppd}{}
Stable:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Americans are ``worst,'' at 200 KWh pPpD.
\item
  European living standard is high, at 120 KWh pPpD.
\end{itemize}

Growing:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  China is 80 KWh pPpD. Only medium-rich yet.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    but already \emph{emits} more than US pPpD (coal).
  \end{itemize}
\item
  India / Africa, still on subsistence poverty.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Skip Efficiency}
\protect\hypertarget{skip-efficiency}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Efficiency is slowly creeping up everywhere.
\item
  The world produces more with less energy,
\item
  \ldots{} plus, same energy emits less.
\item
  But efficiency progress is not enough.
\item
  In total, human energy use and emissions are still not just
  \emph{growing} but \textbf{\emph{accelerating}}.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Efficiency Per GDP: Omitted}
\protect\hypertarget{efficiency-per-gdp-omitted}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Low in China, India, Arabia, Korea.
\item
  High in Africa, Brazil, Germany, Sweden.
\end{itemize}

~

(But countries do different things.)
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Where Is The World Going?}
\protect\hypertarget{where-is-the-world-going}{}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
  Predict Population
\item
  Predict Energy Use Per Person

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    consider efficiency gains
  \item
    assume only historical patterns.
  \end{itemize}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Balloney?}
\protect\hypertarget{balloney}{}
What about the clean energy revolution?
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Clean Energy Revolution?}
\protect\hypertarget{clean-energy-revolution}{}
\includegraphics{fuels-1900.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Get It Now?}
\protect\hypertarget{get-it-now}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  If the world could restrain energy use to today, it would be a
  \emph{huge} accomplishment,
\item
  \ldots{} and yet it would not be enough.
\end{itemize}

~

\textbf{\emph{This is the basic problem of civilization today.}}

\begin{quote}
It's not hopeless. There are things that you and the world can do, but
not necessarily what you read in the media.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
Presumably, this is why you are taking this course.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
