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  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
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\title{Humanity}
\subtitle{There are too many people and everyone wants what the other
has --- The Lunchbox (2013)}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}{Primary Cause Of Global Warming}
\protect\hypertarget{primary-cause-of-global-warming}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Luxury?
\item
  Consumerism?
\item
  Modernism?
\item
  Selfishness?
\item
  Industry?
\item
  Capitalism?
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
(PS: What can be changed? Go back to farming?)
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Primary Cause = Us}
\protect\hypertarget{primary-cause-us}{}
\includegraphics{worldpop.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Primary Cause Is Us}
\protect\hypertarget{primary-cause-is-us}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Humanity cannot turn back.
\item
  These 8 bn people are already here.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    They want to live 21st century lives,
  \item
    which will require food and energy.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  The human population is \emph{still} growing.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Could we curb the growth?
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Whether you like it or not.
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{quote}
Where are all these people?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Where Are All These People?}
\protect\hypertarget{where-are-all-these-people}{}
\includegraphics{population-map.jpg}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Where Will They Be?}
\protect\hypertarget{where-will-they-be}{}
\includegraphics{popbar.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  OECD done growing, except for some immigration.
\item
  Asia

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    China is already shrinking, though surrounding countries compensate
  \item
    India+ will grow for one generation and then maybe shrink back to
    today.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Latin America is stable.
\item
  Only (Sub-Saharan) Africa is growing in leaps and bounds.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    200 m in 1960
  \item
    1,300 m 2020
  \item
    4,300 m in 2100
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Kaya Component Growth}
\protect\hypertarget{kaya-component-growth}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Emissions = Population * Income/Person * Inefficiency
\item
  CO₂ = N * GDP/N * CO₂/GDP

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    CO₂ is in GtCO₂
  \item
    Population is in (million)
  \item
    Income/Person is in 1,000-\$
  \item
    Inefficiency is in gCO₂/\$
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Multiplicative: Any of these zero, and they all go away.
\item
  Matter only together.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Identity Co₂ = N * Gdp/N * Co₂/Gdp}
\protect\hypertarget{identity-coux2082-n-gdpn-coux2082gdp}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lcccc@{}}
\toprule()
Year & Emissions & Population & Inc/P & Inefficiency \\
\midrule()
\endhead
ca 1850 & 0.2 & 1,200 & 1 & 120 \\
ca 1900 & 2.0 & 1,600 & 2 & 570 \\
ca 1950 & 6.0 & 2,560 & 4 & 640 \\
ca 2000 & 25.2 & 6,143 & 10 & 400 \\
ca 2015 & 35.5 & 7,380 & 15 & 320 \\
ca 2022 & 36.3 & 7,882 & 17 & 270 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Per-Annum Average Growth}
\protect\hypertarget{per-annum-average-growth}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lcccc@{}}
\toprule()
Year & Emissions & Population & Inc/P & Inefficiency \\
\midrule()
\endhead
1850-2020 & +3.2\% & +1.1\% & +1.7\% & +0.5\% \\
2020-2050e & +0.7\% & +0.7\% & +2.1\% & --2.0\% \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Preview}
\protect\hypertarget{preview}{}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Fighting Climate Change}
\protect\hypertarget{fighting-climate-change}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Donate to Greenpeace?
\item
  Demonstrate at UN COP Conf?
\item
  Use paper straws to \emph{reduce your carbon footprint}?
\item
  Shame your neighbors?
\item
  Drown your sorrows and anxieties?
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Which of these will meaningfully reduce the world's population, reduce
the world's energy consumption, reduce the world's CO\textsubscript{2}
emissions, and reduce the accumulating CO\textsubscript{2} \emph{stock}
in the atmosphere?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{If Everybody Did It\ldots{}}
\protect\hypertarget{if-everybody-did-it}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Would be \emph{great}!
\item
  But this will not be \emph{your} doing or decision margin.
\item
  If they would, they would; regardless of what \emph{you} do.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Like It Or Not}
\protect\hypertarget{like-it-or-not}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Be realistic!
\item
  You are not divine.
\item
  You are not even globally important..
\item
  The world's people won't do what \emph{you} tell them to do.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Even religious leaders have stark limits.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      The pope can maybe get 10 million people to truly change behavior.
      What about the other 7.99 billion?
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    Even politicians have stark limits.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      Even Trump and Modi are riding the tiger.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Economics 101}
\protect\hypertarget{economics-101}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item[$\square$]
  \emph{In large numbers}, humans act selfishly.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    Ex-post self-rationalization is even built into our brains!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{How Many Can \emph{You} Tackle?}
\protect\hypertarget{how-many-can-you-tackle}{}
Realistic Atmospheric CO\textsubscript{2} Reduction Plans:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Stop 0.00003 billion UCLA students?

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    still tens of thousand of students. could you?
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Stop 0.0003 billion UC affiliates?
\item
  Stop 0.003 billion Angelinos?
\item
  Stop 0.03 billion Californians?
\item
  Stop 0.3 billion Americans?
\end{itemize}

How many can \emph{you} reasonably influence?

\begin{quote}
0.0001\% of world is far more than 100\% of your city.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{American Success?!}
\protect\hypertarget{american-success}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Assume \emph{you} succeed on 0.3 billion Americans.
\item
  \emph{You} have been so influential that you have brought Americans to
  their tears \emph{and} to their knees.
\item
  They will immediately stop emitting and, if need be, even go back to
  the stone age.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  What about the \textbf{7-9 billion} others?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Will the rest of world follow \emph{because} of the US example?
  \item
    Or will they act roughly independently?
  \item
    It not, then you won't have done enough.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Who could shame China, India, or Nigeria?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Or can you get each then-stone-age Americans to pay for 5--20 other
    foreigners, too?
  \item
    (depends on cost?)
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\end{document}
