Primary Cause Of Global Warming
Luxury?
Consumerism?
Modernism?
Selfishness?
Industry?
Capitalism?
(PS: What can be changed? Go back to farming?)
There are too many people and everyone wants what the other has — The Lunchbox (2013)
Ivo Welch
2023-02-17
Luxury?
Consumerism?
Modernism?
Selfishness?
Industry?
Capitalism?
(PS: What can be changed? Go back to farming?)
Humanity cannot turn back.
These 8 bn people are already here.
They want to live 21st century lives,
which will require food and energy.
The human population is still growing.
Whether you like it or not.
💊
Where are all these people?
OECD done growing, except for some immigration.
Asia
China is already shrinking, though surrounding countries compensate
India+ will grow for one generation and then maybe shrink back to today.
Latin America is stable.
Only (Sub-Saharan) Africa is growing in leaps and bounds.
Emissions = Population * Income/Person * Inefficiency
CO₂ = N * GDP/N * CO₂/GDP
CO₂ is in GtCO₂
Population is in (million)
Income/Person is in 1,000-$
Inefficiency is in gCO₂/$
Multiplicative: Any of these zero, and they all go away.
Matter only together.
Year | Emissions | Population | Inc/P | Inefficiency |
---|---|---|---|---|
ca 1850 | 0.2 | 1,200 | 1 | 120 |
ca 1900 | 2.0 | 1,600 | 2 | 570 |
ca 1950 | 6.0 | 2,560 | 4 | 640 |
ca 2000 | 25.2 | 6,143 | 10 | 400 |
ca 2015 | 35.5 | 7,380 | 15 | 320 |
ca 2022 | 36.3 | 7,882 | 17 | 270 |
Year | Emissions | Population | Inc/P | Inefficiency |
---|---|---|---|---|
1850-2020 | +3.2% | +1.1% | +1.7% | +0.5% |
2020-2050e | +0.7% | +0.7% | +2.1% | –2.0% |
Donate to Greenpeace?
Demonstrate at UN COP Conf?
Use paper straws to reduce your carbon footprint?
Shame your neighbors?
Drown your sorrows and anxieties?
Which of these will meaningfully reduce the world’s population, reduce the world’s energy consumption, reduce the world’s CO2 emissions, and reduce the accumulating CO2 stock in the atmosphere?
Would be great!
But this will not be your doing or decision margin.
If they would, they would; regardless of what you do.
Be realistic!
You are not divine.
You are not even globally important..
The world’s people won’t do what you tell them to do.
Even religious leaders have stark limits.
Even politicians have stark limits.
In large numbers, humans act selfishly.
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Realistic Atmospheric CO2 Reduction Plans:
Stop 0.00003 billion UCLA students?
Stop 0.0003 billion UC affiliates?
Stop 0.003 billion Angelinos?
Stop 0.03 billion Californians?
Stop 0.3 billion Americans?
How many can you reasonably influence?
0.0001% of world is far more than 100% of your city.
Assume you succeed on 0.3 billion Americans.
You have been so influential that you have brought Americans to their tears and to their knees.
They will immediately stop emitting and, if need be, even go back to the stone age.
What about the 7-9 billion others?
Will the rest of world follow because of the US example?
Or will they act roughly independently?
It not, then you won’t have done enough.
Who could shame China, India, or Nigeria?
Or can you get each then-stone-age Americans to pay for 5–20 other foreigners, too?
(depends on cost?)
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