OECD vs. Non-OECD

• OECD: Rich

• Not OECD: Not Rich (Mid-Income or Poor)

OECD vs. Non-OECD Emissions

• Emissions no longer primarily OECD / US problem.

• Most important emitter now China +.

• Principal emissions growth now India and developing world.

If non-OECD countries don’t clean up their acts, too, the world will emit a lot more GHGs sooner than later.

Reducing Emissions, 2050e

Irrelevant: “Responsibility”

• There will be no contrition transfers!

• … but morbid fun.

• See next pages for cumulative “responsibility”

Current Emissions “Responsibility”

(Linked Bar Chart Race)

Linked Bar Chart Race

Per Person Per Year, Areas

Poorer Countries’ Aspirations

• Lower or higher emissions?

• Where will poor countries want to go?

• Where will poor countries go?

• Does it matter what you think?

• Does it matter whether Biden likes it?

• Does it matter whether the EU or UN likes it?

💊

Perspective: California / SoCal / LA / UCLA

• California = largest US state (1/2 Germany)
  • 10t/psn x 40 m = 0.4 GtCO2
  • 8 of 1000 pebbles
• SoCal (Los Angeles Metro Area, 12m)
  • 1/3 of California
  • 3 of 1000 pebbles
• Los Angeles City (4m)
  • 1/3 of SoCal
  • 1 of 1000 pebbles

• UCLA (50,000)
  • 1/100 of 1 pebble
• Anderson (3,000)
  • 1/1000 of 1 pebble.
  • Salt crystal anyone?
• You?