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  pdftitle={GHGs and Human Emissions},
  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
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\title{GHGs and Human Emissions}
\subtitle{How's your driving record? Clean? It's clean, real clean. Like
my conscience. --- Travis Bickle.}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}{Measuring Emissions in GtCO\textsubscript{2}}
\protect\hypertarget{measuring-emissions-in-gtco2}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \textbf{GtCO\textsubscript{2}}: Gigatonne of CO\textsubscript{2} (per
  year):

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    equivalent, 1,000,000,000 metric tonnes.
  \item
    We will work with \(\approx\) 1--50 GtCO\textsubscript{2}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  Be careful: 1 GtC (carbon) is \emph{not} 1 GtCO\textsubscript{2}:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    The difference is oxygen.
  \item
    1 tC = 3.5 tCO\textsubscript{2} .
  \item
    \emph{Social Cost of Carbon} is badly misnamed. The quoted
    \$-figures are really the \emph{Social Cost of
    Carbon}-\textbf{\emph{Dioxide}} (CO\textsubscript{2}).
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\includegraphics{carbon-cycle.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\includegraphics{co2decay.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\includegraphics{co2atmos.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\includegraphics{carbon-budget.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  we hope carbon sinks won't exhaust.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    e.g., warmer oceans may bubble out more CO\textsubscript{2}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  fortunately, no signs of net exhaustion \emph{yet}
\item
  unknown: could also ramp up (e.g., plants)
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Long-Lived GHG Emissions}
\protect\hypertarget{long-lived-ghg-emissions}{}
Highly correlated (many even from same sources):

\begin{itemize}
\item
  CO\textsubscript{2} (3/4 of GHG, longest-term).
\item
  Methane CH\textsubscript{4} (1/8 of GHG).

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Much more opaque to IR
  \item
    immediate control has big short-term payoffs.
  \item
    CH\textsubscript{4} decays to \(\approx\) minute
    CO\textsubscript{2}.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  Other (NOx, CFC).
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Global Warming Potential (GWP)}
\protect\hypertarget{global-warming-potential-gwp}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  CH\textsubscript{4} warms more, but doesn't last as long.
\item
  CO\textsubscript{2}: GWP=1.
\item
  \textbf{GtCO\textsubscript{2}e}: measure of warming power
\item
  We use
  \href{https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator}{standard
  GWP factors}.
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
Factors can be argued with, depending on use case, but good enough for
us.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\includegraphics{gaspie.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Land Charge}
\protect\hypertarget{land-charge}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  (Human) land charge (per year) is reduced (forest) absorption of
  CO\textsubscript{2}.
\item
  \href{https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-co2-emissions-have-been-flat-for-a-decade-new-data-reveals}{Carbonbrief}
  suggests that the land use charge has declined enough to offset
  emission \emph{increases} for about one decade now.
\item
  Good news\ldots but needs to be checked.
\item
  And how much longer will this be the case?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Water Vapor}
\protect\hypertarget{water-vapor}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Think air humidity.
\item
  \(\approx\) 3/4 of greenhouse warming.
\item
  Not long-lived.
\item
  Very responsive to temperature

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    Positive feedback amplification.
  \item
    Likely fully (100\%) driven by long-lived GHGs.
  \item
    A scientific minority disagrees (90\%?).
  \end{itemize}
\item
  but also (mostly) responsible for clouds
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{World GtCO\textsubscript{2} Fuel Emissions (Only
CO\textsubscript{2})}
\protect\hypertarget{world-gtco2-fuel-emissions-only-co2}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lc@{}}
\toprule()
From & GtCO\textsubscript{2} \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Coal & 15 \\
Oil & 12 \\
Gas & 7 \\
Other & 5 \\
& \\
Total & 38 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Methane And NOx: GtCO\textsubscript{2}}
\protect\hypertarget{methane-and-nox-gtco2}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lc@{}}
\toprule()
From & GtCO\textsubscript{2}e \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Cattle & 3 \\
Fossil Fuel & 3 \\
Rice & 1 \\
Fertilizer & 1 \\
& \\
Total & 12 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Circle Plot}
\protect\hypertarget{circle-plot}{}
\includegraphics{ghg-by-sector.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{GHG Sources}
\protect\hypertarget{ghg-sources}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lc@{}}
\toprule()
From & GtCO\textsubscript{2}e \\
\midrule()
\endhead
All = Power, Heat, Agriculture & 50 \\
~~ Agriculture & 10 \\
~~ Non-Agriculture & 40 \\
& \\
~~ Combustion & 33 \\
~~ Cement & 10 \\
~~ Airplanes & 2 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lc@{}}
\toprule()
From & GtCO\textsubscript{2}e \\
\midrule()
\endhead
Transport & 8 \\
Electricity & 14 \\
Heating & 4 \\
Industrial & 16 \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Electrifying}
\protect\hypertarget{electrifying}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  Think 25-35 GtCO\textsubscript{2}e is easily electrifiable.
\item
  Think 15-25 GtCO\textsubscript{2}e is not (ag, flying, etc.)
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Summary}
\protect\hypertarget{summary}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  World GHG emissions are \textbf{huge},
\item
  and still \textbf{accelerating},

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    although rate of acceleration (3rd derivative) is slowing.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
