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  pdftitle={Climate Future},
  pdfauthor={Ivo Welch},
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\title{Climate Future}
\subtitle{Good Morning, Vietnam\ldots{}}
\author{Ivo Welch}
\date{December 31, 2021}

\usepackage{/Users/ivo/.pandoc/templates/pandoc-preamble} %% iaw; will in turn include local directory file pandoc.sty

\begin{document}
\frame{\titlepage}

\begin{frame}
\emph{\ldots the weather out there today is hot and shitty with
continued hot and shitty in the afternoon. Tomorrow a chance of
continued crappy with a pissy weather front coming down from the north.
Basically, it's hotter than a snake's ass in a wagon rut. --- Adrian
Cronauer.}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{(Poll)}
\protect\hypertarget{poll}{}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Atmospheric GHG Concentration History}
\protect\hypertarget{atmospheric-ghg-concentration-history}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  GHG \emph{concentration} has been growing:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    ``stock'' in the atmosphere is 410 ppm now (base = 280 ppm),
  \item
    this is about 50\% higher (doubling =\textgreater{} about 3°C)
  \item
    current growth rate is 2.5 ppm/year.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      2.5ppm is not so bad---until you think in terms of generations
    \item
      emissions are accelerating
    \item
      but effects are more linearly increasing
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  will continue growing for at least 30 more years

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    more likely 60 more years.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Global Temperature History}
\protect\hypertarget{global-temperature-history}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  global temperature has been increasing

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    not yet in equilibrium
  \item
    most relevant data: last 30-200 years
  \item
    increase attributable greatly or exclusively to GHG emissions
  \item
    the already-emitted gases suggest an ``equilibrium'' temperature
    increase of 1.5°C

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      due to 50\% GHG increase
    \item
      only 0.7-1°C has occurred \emph{to-date}, the other half is still
      on its way,
    \item
      due to heat reservoirs and/or delaying SO\textsubscript{2}
      reflectivity from coal.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  \emph{if} this were the final equilibrium, but civilization is of
  course still pumping more GHGs, so we will push right through 1.5°C.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{IPCC Projections Of Near Future}
\protect\hypertarget{ipcc-projections-of-near-future}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  intergovernmental panel on climate change.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    these are not the fossil-fuel folks, but the climate scientists that
    worry about warming.
  \item
    they are our main information source.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      data almost always objective, but
    \item
      occasionally (possibly) biased assessments.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  RCP: representative concentration pathway,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    named based on increases in watts/m\(^2\),
  \item
    mostly about \emph{expected} outcomes, but cognizant
  \item
    their RCPs are their expertise. their SCPs are more dubious.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  benchmarks:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    1,360 W/m\(^2\) on top of atmosphere (avg).
  \item
    1,000 W/m\(^2\) on ground (avg).
  \end{itemize}
\item
  climate change will likely be severe

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    this is almost surely correct.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Relevant Realistic RCP Scenarios}
\protect\hypertarget{relevant-realistic-rcp-scenarios}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  RCP 4.0 (extra 4 W/m\(^2\)) --- 2.5°C.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    think from today, another +1.5°C.
  \item
    active ``tough-sacrifice'' intervention.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  RCP 6.0 (extra 6 W/m\(^2\)) --- 3.0°C.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    think from today, another +2.0°C.
  \item
    very ``mild'' intervention.
  \item
    most likely Earth's current pathway
  \item
    opinion: only smart intervention can bend RCP lower
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Irrelevant Unrealistic RCP Scenarios}
\protect\hypertarget{irrelevant-unrealistic-rcp-scenarios}{}
trains that have left station:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  RCP 2.5 --- forget it

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    fat chance.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  RCP 8.0 --- forget it

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    clean tech has mostly obsoleted it.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
watch it---many sites still publish alarmist assessments under RCP 8.0.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{UN COP Treaty Negotiations}
\protect\hypertarget{un-cop-treaty-negotiations}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  COP (UN conference of the {[}197{]} parties)
\item
  RCP 4 vs.~RCP 6.
\item
  not much chance that COP treaty could do

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    better than RCP 4, or
  \item
    worse than RCP 6.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \ldots whether you like it or not.
\end{itemize}

~

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{RCP Possible Emissions Path}
\protect\hypertarget{rcp-possible-emissions-path}{}
\includegraphics{RCP.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{quote}
realistic emission peaks: \(\approx\) 2050.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{RCP Rough Temperature Path}
\protect\hypertarget{rcp-rough-temperature-path}{}
\includegraphics{year-vs-temp.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Part 1: \textbf{Expected Change On RCP}}
\protect\hypertarget{part-1-expected-change-on-rcp}{}
~

\begin{block}{\textbf{bad.}}
\protect\hypertarget{bad.}{}
\end{block}

\begin{block}{\textbf{pretty bad.}}
\protect\hypertarget{pretty-bad.}{}
\end{block}

\begin{block}{\textbf{bad enough.}}
\protect\hypertarget{bad-enough.}{}
~

\begin{quote}
latest suggest 0.3 by 2100, i.e., lower range.
\end{quote}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{\ldots{} But Is It World Ending?}
\protect\hypertarget{but-is-it-world-ending}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  affirmatively not on \textbf{\emph{expected}} RCP path
\item
  what will a temperature shift of 2-3°C mean?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    boston → nyc → washington → raleigh.
  \item
    los angeles → las vegas or austin.
  \item
    can usa survive this kind of shift?
  \item
    can civilization survive it?
  \item
    can the world survive it?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  affirmatively not on \textbf{\emph{much worse}} RCP path, either
\item
  climate change will become \emph{much more} noticeable than it is
  today.
\item
  the IPCC tells us that this temperature change has become inevitable.
\item
  we have just (20 years) been beginning to truly feel warming

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    especially in northern latitudes and at night
  \item
    don't know why exactly
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Important: Decision Margin}
\protect\hypertarget{important-decision-margin}{}
\textbf{\emph{climate-change vs no-climate-change is not the relevant
decision margin!}}

\begin{quote}
what is the correct decision margin?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Actions and Expected Temperature Paths}
\protect\hypertarget{actions-and-expected-temperature-paths}{}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}
  >{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{(\columnwidth - 4\tabcolsep) * \real{0.5676}}
  >{\centering\arraybackslash}p{(\columnwidth - 4\tabcolsep) * \real{0.2432}}
  >{\centering\arraybackslash}p{(\columnwidth - 4\tabcolsep) * \real{0.1892}}@{}}
\toprule()
\begin{minipage}[b]{\linewidth}\raggedright
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[b]{\linewidth}\centering
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[b]{\linewidth}\centering
delta
\end{minipage} \\
\midrule()
\endhead
decrease & 1500-1800 & -0.4°C \\
increase & 1800-2020 & +1.5°C \\
& & \\
do-nada rcp6 further increase & 2020-2100 & +2.1°C \\
activist rcp4 further increase & 2020-2100 & +1.7°C \\
& & \\
GHG net curtailment & activist &
\href{https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/23/1042973/climate-change-action-progress-clean-energy/}{-0.4°C} \\
\bottomrule()
\end{longtable}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Climate-Change Fighting Efforts}
\protect\hypertarget{climate-change-fighting-efforts}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  do not confuse \emph{expected} warming with \textbf{\emph{reduced}}
  expected warming if humanity fights climate change.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    fighting climate change is all about a reduction of 0.3-0.5°C.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      no scientific info on reduced probability of 5°C
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    it is \emph{never} about a larger reduction of 2-3°C.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      if 2-3°C were to (unexpectedly) cause more harm (such as mass
      extinctions), it would likely still remain so even if COP ``won,''
      albeit maybe with a little lower probability.
    \item
      mass extinctions are primarily due to habitat loss and human
      population growth and not due to temperature changes per se.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{block}{how many activists know exactly what they are fighting
for? and what it means or does not mean?}
\protect\hypertarget{how-many-activists-know-exactly-what-they-are-fighting-for-and-what-it-means-or-does-not-mean}{}
~

\begin{quote}
I am in favor of intervention, but not in the way that activists are
proposing.
\end{quote}

~

\begin{quote}
I did not design the world or the choices before us. don't blame me. \pill
\end{quote}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Climate-Change Action Effects}
\protect\hypertarget{climate-change-action-effects}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \textbf{\emph{not}} Climate-Change effects
\item
  what will an \textbf{\emph{extra}} mean temperature increase of
  0.3-0.5°C really mean?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    it will be big, noticeable, and meaningful,
  \item
    but will it be \emph{relatively} Earth shattering? no.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_cities_by_average_temperature}{examples
  of 0.3-0.5°C differences}:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    calgary ↔ st. johns ↔ st.pierre.
  \item
    toronto ↔ chicago/detroit ↔ denver ↔ pittsburgh ↔ boise ↔ columbus.
  \item
    san diego/tijuana ↔ los angeles.
  \item
    las vegas ↔ san antonio.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      ps: do you even know which are warmer?
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The Meaning Of ``Mean'':}
\protect\hypertarget{the-meaning-of-mean}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  temperature can increase lots more in some locations

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    but less in others
  \end{itemize}
\item
  temperature could increase a lot more than expected

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    but also a lot less
  \item
    we will discuss risks below again
  \item
    on average, risks justify more caution
  \item
    this also depends on how quickly humanity could react.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      if undoing response could take \textless{} 5 years, should we see
      first?
    \item
      we don't treat cancer ahead of time.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Where Will Most (Eco/Econ) Harm Occur?}
\protect\hypertarget{where-will-most-ecoecon-harm-occur}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  we want to measure \emph{economic damages}.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    ideally, incl ecosystem damage, too.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  most of Earth will change

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    not every place will get worse!
  \item
    but most places will just be a little different.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  the important problems will be today's `marginal' zones:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    not the sahara, but the sahel (85 mln people).
  \item
    \href{https://phys.org/news/2019-11-climate-impacts-world-trillion.html}{angola,
    nigeria, egypt, bangladesh, venezuela}.
  \item
    warming brings more water vapor and possibly rain, too.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  so far, temperature has increased most in extreme and polar latitudes,
  especially Northern latitudes.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    boffins are not sure why.
  \item
    could change.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  where will more CO\textsubscript{2} and rain \emph{help} crops?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Climate-Change Damage Estimates: Food}
\protect\hypertarget{climate-change-damage-estimates-food}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  most warming damage is forecast to occur in
  \href{https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/s167492782030071x}{agriculture}.
\item
  \textbf{\emph{huh?}}

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    the world is \emph{not} food limited.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  if reduced food production is the main worldwide problem, it would be
  cheap to fix:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    agro deficits would be easy to cover
  \item
    agro productivity could even increase with more CO\textsubscript{2},
    adaptation, and new GMO draught-resistant crops
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Climate-Change Damage Estimates: Disease}
\protect\hypertarget{climate-change-damage-estimates-disease}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  most
  \href{https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health}{increasing
  deaths} are forecast to come from preventable and curable diseases,
  especially malaria.
\item
  \textbf{\emph{huh?}}

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    the world is \emph{not} treatment and medicine limited.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  if increased malaria is the main worldwide problem, it would be cheap
  and easy to fix:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    we could even wipe out specific mosquito species altogether

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      how long should we
      \href{https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abo1733}{wait}?
    \item
      fortunately, my own kids are not dying from it.
    \item
      let's place the ethical review boards' kids into these regions,
      too.
    \item
      slow decisions feel like very elitist luxury ethics to me.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
diarrhoea

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  (wth?)
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
heat stress

\begin{itemize}
\item
  what if people move? over 50 years?
\item
  what about cold deaths?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Identifying Specific Problems}
\protect\hypertarget{identifying-specific-problems}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  if food and disease are really the main problems, ``we'' could cure
  them very cheaply.
\item
  in this were the case, it would be cheaper to cure the symptoms than
  the disease.
\item
  indeed, probably 2-3 orders of magnitude cheaper.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  we need to look further
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The Environment: Ecological Harm}
\protect\hypertarget{the-environment-ecological-harm}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  destruction is both climate and non-climate related.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    habitat destruction is much harder to fix than climate change,
  \item
    it is also way beyond our course's scope,
  \item
    and there are no obvious solutions.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  but ``\emph{the environment}'' is a `luxury good'.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    richer people demand healthier environments
  \item
    a healthy ecology is valued higher in the OECD than it is in brazil,
    india, sudan, or nigeria.
  \item
    bangladesh's problem today is abject poverty, not global warming in
    50-100 years.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      sea level rise RCP4 forecast: 46cm; RCP6 forecast: 47cm.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Any Benefits?}
\protect\hypertarget{any-benefits}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  precipitation Increases in many places,
\item
  but hard to predict where:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    the sahara dried up a few thousand years ago
  \item
    maybe from goats overgrazing
  \item
    sand feeds cloud formation / rain ; has high albedo
  \end{itemize}
\item
  but warming → more water vapor → more precipitation.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    some will be torrential and useless,
  \item
    but most should be productive and useful,
  \item
    just as it is today.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Net Harm From Global Warming}
\protect\hypertarget{net-harm-from-global-warming}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  more extreme events!? bad.
\item
  more CO\textsubscript{2} and rain!? good?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Expected Sea Level Rise}
\protect\hypertarget{expected-sea-level-rise}{}
\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  expect about 0.3-0.6 meters (1-2 feet) by 2100 over pre-industrial
  levels
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  bangladesh, indonesia, florida, netherlands.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    and malibu(?).
    \href{https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/17/18223808/climate-change-sea-level-rising-data-visualization-environment}{(you
    can check yourself)}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  but not afghanistan and iowa.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  perhaps not even a problem for netherlands and venice at expected 1-2'
  sea level rise.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Activist vs Economic Approach}
\protect\hypertarget{activist-vs-economic-approach}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  the \emph{activist approach} focuses primarily or only on the cost of
  climate change.
\item
  it often completely ignores:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    the benefits of climate change
  \item
    the cost of fighting climate change
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  this is the
  ``\href{https://www.ivo-welch.info/teaching/climate-change/funny-annie.mp4}{G}reenpeace
  problem.''

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    problems that they highlight are typically correct
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Cost-Benefit Economic Analysis}
\protect\hypertarget{cost-benefit-economic-analysis}{}
the \emph{economic approach} weighs costs against benefits:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  how much would it cost to reduce climate change?
\item
  how fast and effective would harm be reduced?
\item
  should we do it now or see what happens first?
\item
  how many more people will die because they could not escape poverty as
  quickly?
\item
  how do we count improvements in other areas?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  is there an optimal Earth temperature??
\item
  damage will be limited because of adaptation

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    not just humans but other species, too

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      polar bears are almost a sub-species of grizzly bears
    \item
      color, swimming, and feet/claw differences
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    scientists' damage estimates in 100 years are speculative
  \item
    19th century: 70\% of americans moved from the land to cities.
  \item
    moving has become much cheaper in 21st century
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{About Suffering Of The Poor?}
\protect\hypertarget{about-suffering-of-the-poor}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  many winners and losers.
\item
  many transition hardships:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    millions will suffer, billions may be harmed,
  \item
    but billions or millions may also gain.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \emph{rich} people (``you'') will basically be fine.
\item
  \emph{poor} people may not be able to escape or to adjust.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    can we make them richer sooner?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
is climate activism about/for the poor?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Easy Econ About Poor?}
\protect\hypertarget{easy-econ-about-poor}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  cross-subsidize from winners to losers?
\item
  oecd could help bangladesh and sahel:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    could be cheaper to help the poor than to limit emissions;
  \item
    could be cheaper to move sahelis than saving the sahel!
  \item
    moving sahelis would be expensive, of course --- but so is curbing
    CO\textsubscript{2}.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      and frankly the rest of us will mostly just ignore them
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    otoh, sahel may turn green again?!
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{block}{BUT}
\protect\hypertarget{but}{}
\begin{quote}
is climate activism about/for the poor?
\end{quote}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Saving The Poor?}
\protect\hypertarget{saving-the-poor}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  take a cold hard look at the evidence.
\item
  when their pocketbooks are at stake:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    the rich do not care much about poor,
  \item
    neither rich countries about poor countries,
  \item
    nor \href{https://youtu.be/vadlkunflrs}{rich} people about the poor
    in their own countries.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Time Bandits}
\protect\hypertarget{time-bandits}{}
\begin{quote}
\href{https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=167IhlXnN2Y}{have you met the
poor? --- robin.}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Do The Rich Care About Poor?}
\protect\hypertarget{do-the-rich-care-about-poor}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  if they did, the world would be different.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    ps: plus, there'd be other problems:
  \item
    aid may not be
    \href{https://www.cgdev.org/blog/aid-effectiveness-debate-between-steve-radelet-and-william-easterly}{effective
    (see easterly)}?
  \item
    aid may not be appreciated: local tribalism, anti-colonialism, and
    cultural resistance.
  \item
    aid may require force. who wants to take on congolese warlords?
  \item
    still, a lot of undone good is possible (un wfp, unicef),
  \item
    but the rich really don't much care. \pill
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Poor: Talk, Don't Walk}
\protect\hypertarget{poor-talk-dont-walk}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  is climate activism about saving the poor (or `communities of color')?

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    does activism offer realistic approaches?
  \item
    or just idealistic blabber of rich youth?

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      \ldots{} when their own pocketbooks are \emph{not} at stake.
    \item
      \ldots{} and when they are afraid of their own hides?
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
collective shame of humanity, read
\href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/peter_singer}{peter singer}.
\end{quote}

\ldots{} whether you like it or not. \pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Some \emph{Expected} RCP Uncertainty}
\protect\hypertarget{some-expected-rcp-uncertainty}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  think not 2.5°C, but 2.0-3.5°C.
\item
  think not 3.0°C, but 2.5-4.0°C.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  any expected uncertainty \emph{adds} to the problem:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    risk → requires \emph{more} not \emph{less} concern,
  \item
    e.g., think upper end of spectrum,
  \item
    but don't plan based on worst-case only.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      humanity did not get to today by hiding in holes
    \end{itemize}
  \item
    responsiveness and adaptation will counter variation and
    uncertainty.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Other GCC Consequences}
\protect\hypertarget{other-gcc-consequences}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  nice but dated
  \href{https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=1866}{web page} of cc
  effects
\item
  fairly typical cc assessments:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    probably all true.
  \item
    yet focuses only on negatives,
  \item
    ignores any positives whatsoever --- really?
  \item
    often easies to predict negatives, not positives.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
equivalent for econ growth and creative (job) destruction.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{quote}
what is optimal Earth temperature?
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
if we are indeed already \emph{hugely} above optimal Earth temp for
humans and the ecology, then boffins could likely reduce global
temperature very cheaply, with modest negative side effects. it would
make sense if cooling benefits would be huge.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
I don't think the world is there (yet?)\ldots{}
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Help Me! \textbf{\emph{What Did I Miss?}}}
\protect\hypertarget{help-me-what-did-i-miss}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  send me (quantitative) evidence, please.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    I have been looking for more \emph{exp.} harm.
  \item
    it's \emph{not} in hurricanes, floods, etc.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  please no vacuous statements:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    ``one life lost is too many.''
  \item
    ``no child left behind.''
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
such statements are context-specific, of course.
\end{quote}

\begin{quote}
can make sense for doc in emergency room, but not in traffic planning.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  yes, people die. yes, death is terrible.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    in fact, about 50 (soon 100) million people die per year.
  \item
    negligibly few die from climate change.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      10,000 deaths are just 0.000,125\%.
    \item
      so few deaths matter little in the global balance---of course,
      except when they affect people you know.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\item
  boffins must analyze ugly tradeoffs.
\end{itemize}

\pill
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{\textbf{\emph{Unknown Unknowns}}}
\protect\hypertarget{unknown-unknowns}{}
~

\begin{block}{\textbf{worse than pretty bad.}}
\protect\hypertarget{worse-than-pretty-bad.}{}
\end{block}

\begin{block}{\textbf{potentially really really bad!}}
\protect\hypertarget{potentially-really-really-bad}{}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{1. Unprecedented Speed}
\protect\hypertarget{unprecedented-speed}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  less time for species to adapt.
\item
  yet many species will move habitat,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    except for polar bears?!
  \item
    cc can amplify habitat destruction.
  \item
    `seafood' may be worst of \emph{many} sins.
  \item
    extinction is not \emph{primarily} cc.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  rapid cc is not truly unprecedented.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    think asteroid impacts.
  \item
    think ``\emph{real}'' supervolcanoes.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{2. Dormant Feedback Loops}
\protect\hypertarget{dormant-feedback-loops}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  permafrost (methane).

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    think 5,000 gtCO\textsubscript{2}. (atmo: 2,500
    gtCO\textsubscript{2} = 400ppm.)
  \end{itemize}
\item
  albedo (i.e., reflectivity).
\item
  clouds?! (high vs.~low?)
\item
  larger fires.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    planet-wide fires maintain
    \href{https://www.Earthmagazine.org/article/flammable-planet-fire-finds-its-place-Earth-history/}{appropriate
    oxygen levels for life}.
  \item
    range: 16\% - 23\%. today: 21\%.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \textbf{what do we not know?}
\end{itemize}

\begin{quote}
where does the next sahara feedback loop lie?
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{3. Tipping Points}
\protect\hypertarget{tipping-points}{}
\begin{description}
\tightlist
\item[1-2°C]
arctic and greenland melt, indian monsoon.
\item[2-4°C]
west-antarctic ice and amazon.
\item[3-5°C]
west-african monsoon, boreal forest, el nino, atlantic.
\item[sea level]
unlikely, but not impossible: not 1-2 feet, but \textbf{15 feet}!
\end{description}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Perspective: Extreme Climate Danger}
\protect\hypertarget{perspective-extreme-climate-danger}{}
change can bring the unexpected:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  could be bad.
\item
  could be \textbf{\emph{real bad}}.
\item
  could be \textbf{\emph{real, real bad}}.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Important Perspective}
\protect\hypertarget{important-perspective}{}
\begin{block}{Do not ignore the worst possible case.}
\protect\hypertarget{do-not-ignore-the-worst-possible-case.}{}
\end{block}

\begin{block}{Do not expect it.}
\protect\hypertarget{do-not-expect-it.}{}
~

\begin{itemize}
\item
  we do not live primarily planning for World War 3.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    well, actually, some crazy people do.
  \item
    and some folks in hollywood think about it.

    \begin{itemize}
    \tightlist
    \item
      have they run out of ideas for good movies? the weather channel
      and kung-fu superheroes are not scripts.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Perspective: Climate Anxiety?}
\protect\hypertarget{perspective-climate-anxiety}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  worst-case scenario could be \emph{very} bad,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    but it may not hit us for hundreds of years
  \item
    \ldots or even \emph{ever}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

~

keep appropriate perspective:

\begin{itemize}
\item
  in human history, 21st century is the best time \emph{ever} to live
  in, by far,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    especially where we (you students and I) are (OECD),
  \item
    even for bottom 10\%, 20\%, or 50\%.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Perspective: Natural Or Man-made?}
\protect\hypertarget{perspective-natural-or-man-made}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  human-made (or not) is unimportant:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    mass extinctions were natural, too.
  \item
    at least 5 great extinctions.

    \begin{itemize}
    \item
      dinosaurs were not the worst, by far.
    \item
      250 mln years ago, 96\% of marine and 70\% of land species died.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Perspective: Warmer Vs. Colder?}
\protect\hypertarget{perspective-warmer-vs.-colder}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  our cave clans survived worlds 6-8°C colder,

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    \emph{with} highly unstable climates,
  \item
    \emph{and} much less technology.
  \item
    \ldots seems way worse to me!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  civilization has never lived in a 3°C warmer world,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    and we were very lucky with low variability.
  \end{itemize}
\item
  great changes will happen sooner or later,

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    we might manage the planet, but even then\ldots{}
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Perspective: Extinction Possible?}
\protect\hypertarget{perspective-extinction-possible}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  will civilization survive global warming?

  \textbf{\emph{of course, yes!}}
\item
  will the human species survive global warming?

  \textbf{\emph{of course, yes!}}
\item
  will you survive?

  \textbf{\emph{of course, not.}} life is a terminal disease.
\end{itemize}

~

\begin{quote}
will ``the planet'' survive global warming? are you kidding? we humans
are a minor infestation of the planet.
\end{quote}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Perspective: Other Catastrophes?}
\protect\hypertarget{perspective-other-catastrophes}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  \href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_apophis}{\emph{apophis
  99942}} will fly \emph{below} our satellites on April 13, 2029 21:46
  UTC

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    more energy than entire nuclear arsenals!
  \end{itemize}
\item
  \emph{bright side}: if it had hit, global warming would no longer have
  been a problem.

  \begin{itemize}
  \tightlist
  \item
    expect 1 / 80,000 years
    (\href{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/sentry_(monitoring_system)\#sentry_risk_table}{sentry
    risk})
  \end{itemize}
\item
  supervolcanos (e.g., yellowstone)

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    global crop failures for 5-10 years anyone?
  \item
    expect 1 / 500,000 years, or just 50,000?
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Evidence Conclusion}
\protect\hypertarget{evidence-conclusion}{}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  doomsday seems \textbf{\emph{not}} imminent,
\item
  much less from climate change:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    serious concern remains warranted.
  \item
    the \emph{expected} temperature increase is big;
  \item
    the planet will change quite a lot
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\begin{itemize}
\item
  but

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    the adapted net effects will remain small
  \item
    worse human misery already exists today
  \item
    worse environmental crises already exist today
  \item
    belt intervention will only have a small effect;
  \end{itemize}
\item
  ``humanity'' (who?) should be prepared for:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item
    global warming foremost,
  \item
    but also secondarily for global cooling.
  \end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
